When the british house of commons will resume debate on the prime minister Theresa Mays contentious Brexit-agreement on Wednesday, the situation is at least as precarious as when she shot up the vote before the christmas and new year holidays. The evidence suggests still that it will be a no, when parliament votes on Tuesday next week.
In that case are the british, who May himself put it, in the ”unexplored land”.
would mean that the 21-month-long transitional period in which the government negotiated. Rather than expecting an immediate end to a series of cross-border collaborations and a shift to WTO rules of trade.
Both the uk government which has begun concrete preparations for it. The british have, inter alia, called in of 3,500 soldiers as shall be able to stand ready to help in different ways. But they extended the barriers and difficulties to move across borders still learn to get large impact at a avtalslös Brexit march 29.Link to the graphics
One of the first places where a avtalslös Brexit will be felt is in the ports such as Dover at the English channel, where more than 10,000 trucks crossing every day.
the Margins are small: if each of the customs control takes two minutes more than in the day the queues in Dover, soon to be miles and miles, according to the trade association FTA. The same applies on the other side of the channel in the French Calais. At the weekend trained british authorities for such a scenario, with a lastbilskonvoj which were sent to Dover via the airport in Manston.
The british government has also begun to charter ferries to be able to offer transport from other ports.
But transport organisations warn of detours and longer waiting periods will lead to high costs and problems for uk businesses that rely on imported components.Link to the graphics
another challenge is to avoid shortages of goods in grocery stores and medicines in uk hospitals. 70% of the Uk's food imports come from the EU, and if long queues occur in the ports of part of the shelves in the stores will soon be empty.
the Prices of some import goods learn to rise substantially when tariffs of around 20% is introduced. Together with a weakened pound, it can contribute to a dollar, an inflationary spiral.
Already now is all stock for chilled goods full. The british government chasing new areas and has given pharmaceutical companies in order to create stocks of their medications so that they lasts for at least six weeks.Link to the graphics
The large financial sector in London would lose the ability to freely sell services to customers in other EU countries at a avtalslös Brexit. Many banks and financial institutions have therefore begun to prepare for the move to cities such as Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin.
Also in the manufacturing industry there is growing concern. Both aircraft manufacturers such as the automotive industry is dependent on imports of components from other EU countries. Aircraft manufacturer Airbus is warning that a week's delay can cost the company upwards of $ 10 billion. There will be a higher customs duties and bureaucratic barriers, which made a number of large industrial companies started planning for the relocation of the factories.Link to the graphics
The approximately 3.5 million EU citizens today live and work in the Uk should be allowed to stay, even at a avtalslös Brexit, according to Theresa May. For the europeans (including swedes) who want to move to the Uk after Brexit, however, will the same visa requirements be that of the people from the other parts of the world (with the exception of shorter stays).
the Significantly more unclear is what will happen with the approximately one million britons who live on the continent. At a avtalslös Brexit becomes, in practice, up to each individual member state to decide, even if the EUROPEAN commission calls on governments to treat the british people ”generously”.Link to the graphics
Invandringsmotståndet was an important explanation for the left-side won in the referendum in 2016. A certain irony is, therefore, that labour shortages threaten after Brexit.
anyone who visited London know that many of those working in the service industry today has its origin in other countries. Hundreds of cafes, restaurants, hotels and, not least, the classic English-style pubs are the closest to dependence on foreign labour.
42 per cent of employers in the hotel and catering sector are already difficult to find enough staff for short temporary positions and appearances. It get worse when there is no newly arrived workers replacing those EU citizens who choose to leave the country.
If the prices of food then increase due to rise in import duties and the falling pound can the restaurant industry get in serious trouble.Link to the graphics
When Gatwick airport were paralysed by the drones in the christmas holidays and lots of flights were cancelled and tens of thousands of people were stranded, it was a part that asked whether something similar can be done after a avtalslös Brexit.
But most of the evidence suggests, in spite of everything that ordinary passengers will not notice much of a difference. In december, the EUROPEAN commission proposed that the holds of regularly scheduled airlines to and from the Uk should be allowed to continue for 12 months (to begin with), albeit with some restrictions on british companies the opportunity to fly between destinations in the EU.
Although the railway company Eurostar is optimistic, and says that it has close contacts with the british government to ensure that trains can move as normal after the 29th of march.Link to the graphics
If the Uk leaves the EU without a contract, it means that you in one blow leaving the EU emissions trading scheme. The british government will instead introduce a special tax.
In the short and medium term, this may benefit the owners of coal - and gas-fired power plant in the Uk. The nuclear industry is concerned, however, because it is dependent on the material and highly skilled workers who move across borders.
the Trade in electricity across the channel will continue, but there is a risk of increased friction. Some of the vulnerable places – particularly in northern Ireland, there is also the risk of power shortages prior to the new agreements drawn up.
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, the liberal democrats and the scottish SNP will do anything to try to prevent a avtalslös Brexit. Several ministers in the Theresa Mays of the government is also expected to resign in protest. But the prime minister, Theresa May has repeatedly said that she intends to respect the outcome in the 2016 referendum and take the Uk out of the EU.
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