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The future of nuclear deterrence : What are the consequences of could have the From of the INF Treaty

What is the German skilled worker thinks about the new nuclear weapons debate, asked an American in Munich. The Germans at the table were quickly agreed to: He doesn't know what it is. There is no public debate about nuclear weapons in Germany. The largest country in the EU in this and in other aspects a special case. It also takes the threat from Russia is not serious, but is clear that it is a special case.

Long, long ago: the Cold war

in Front of 30, 40 years ago, the situation was different. German, whether in the West or in the East, knew that a war would be fought on their territory. As the best means to prevent, was the deterrent. Both sides knew that Whoever fires the first nuclear weapon, will die as the second. The threat of mutual destruction assured the peace. Then the Cold war ended.

in the Meantime, new generations have been born, the knowledge of nuclear weapons, a little - neither of the former threats of the answers. Who is believed to 1989, a war in Europe is in danger, even with nuclear weapons?

But suddenly the issue of nuclear weapons is once again up to date, even in the midst of Europe. The INF Treaty, which had prohibited a whole category of nuclear weapons - land-based nuclear medium-range missiles - is. Russia, the accusation of Nato, have produced a prohibited cruise missiles and stationed. And if it does not destroy, will not hold the West to the agreement.

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Moscow order breaks the contract, but not> turn-in

The basic function of nuclear weapons remains deterrence, to the extent that German, French, British, Americans and Canadians agreed. You need to have, so the other side can't use their weapons without risk or extortionate intent with the use threaten. But you have to respond to Russian nuclear armament with the appropriate retrofitting? In the 1980s, which had led to success. On the establishment of the Soviet "SS-20" responded the United States, in close coordination with the European Nato allies with the stationing of American medium-range missiles. The result was an arms race, as Moscow also warned at the time, but disarmament - the INF Treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union, the ban on the entire genus.

2019 none of the participants in the discussion, Western retrofit considers to be mandatory. Deterrence is, however. The West have plenty of opportunities to make credible that the Russians will not be able to use your new (banned) weapons, because they are risking a devastating counter-attack: sea-based and air-based nuclear weapons.

Germany is not afraid of the nuclear part I

Also, Germany has a nuclear part in this peacekeeping deterrence. Only the German population was, firstly, not be aware of. Secondly, Germany was the only Nato country in which the sense of the nuclear part did not could is broad support for arithmetic. In the Netherlands, and Italy, things are different. Britain and France have their own nuclear weapons.

The nuclear part of the Germans is that they have planes that American nuclear weapons stored in Germany, in a retaliatory strike into the country of the attacker. That's enough to deter, say the experts. The West does not need to be retrofitted in order to keep the deterrent credible, as in the 1980s.

These German nuclear weapons-capable aircraft need to be replaced soon. And German politicians, the SPD, afraid of this debate. You have just denied the purchase of American "F 35" for this purpose. As an Option, existing "Eurofighter Typhoon" and "Tornado" for a limited time, the purchase of French "Rafale" or the American "F-18".

expansion of the French protection shield? Not a serious Option

another Option would be the extension of the protective umbrella of French nuclear weapons on Germany. The French protection screen should be bigger - and Germany would have to pay the cost. This is considered to be unlikely.

The Strange thing in the German debate, said of the German: The Germans make their safety a priority, but the question of how the "nuclear armament". They were Moscow's Propaganda.

The real risk is the decoupling of the United States

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From the point of view of the experts, Germany should have the greatest interest, to avoid a detachment of its allies, notably the United States, in this question. Germany's security on the slopes of America. France and Europe could not replace credible. However, awareness of these relationships is lacking. In Germany, but also in Germany, Moscow, with its Propaganda of broad success, it is Not a breach of contract on the part of Moscow was in this German special perspective of the Problem, but the reaction of the United States, do not want to hold on to the INF Treaty after Russia has broken him.

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