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The fight in Venezuela : the dispute with Venezuela could escalate

The Thesis that John Bolton inadvertently reveals military secrets that sounds very plausible. It is always a mystery about this scene. In one of the rare press conferences on Monday at the White house, the National security adviser of US President, Donald Trump had clamped his yellow Notepad so under the right Arm, that his handwriting on the front for a few of the journalists present was easily readable. There stood: "Afghanistan – the talks welcome" and including the words "5000 soldiers to Colombia". Immediately, the speculation went, if the United States renal soon, troops in Venezuela's neighboring country, the station and indeed the military to interfere in the conflict in the Latin American country. Colombia is one of the countries that support the self-proclaimed transitional President Juan Guaidó.

In Venezuela, a power raging battle between the authoritarian head of state, Nicolás Maduro and the leader of the opposition Guaidó, the Maduro for the disempowered. The US government has, without hesitation, to Guaidós page and threatens to use all diplomatic and economic levers to pressure Maduro to retreat. While Trump does not exclude military steps explicitly: "All options are on the table."

Maduro's sources of money are drying up

At the press conference on Monday, the US announced sanctions against the Oil industry in Venezuela, more precisely, against the state Oil company PDVSA. Oil from Venezuela, should be under the sanctions regime continues to be purchased, the payments should flow on blocked accounts, said the US Minister of Finance, Steven Mnuchin.

The punitive measures should remain in force, until a "transition government or a democratically elected government" in the South American country is in the office. The sanctions will affect oil is the most important revenue and source of foreign currency for Venezuela and therefore the most important source of money Maduros. Of military interventions, the speech was not. A day later, the acting Minister of defense Patrick Shanahan wanted to say to Mr. Bolton's paper, nothing more. The government in Colombia also declared to know nothing of the deployment of Troops.

That the United States is expected to see Trump, in the conflict in Venezuela military to intervene, especially on the President himself. Already in August 2017, a few months after he took office, voice Trump at once that he prefer a "military Option" against Maduro in consideration, he should internally have even suggested an Invasion. Now, the United States joined officially for Regime Change, mind you, so far, only with diplomatic and economic Pressure.

return of the Monroe doctrine

While so many observers, appeared irritated that the America-First President of the Trump who wants to pull U.S. troops out of Syria and Afghanistan, and to understand often with dictators better seems than with the heads of state and government of the Western partners, takes at once such a large share of a democratic movement abroad, says John Bolton, the commitment of Washington and especially with the geographical proximity of the South American crisis state to the United States. "Venezuela is in our hemisphere, I think we have a special responsibility here." In addition, Trump spent "very much" to Venezuela.

It is also so that developments in this Region impact on the United States, for example, on the number of refugees who want to search for in uncertain times, your luck with the Northern neighbours and the pressure at the southern border of the United States. More than three million Venezuelans have already fled to neighboring countries. In addition, the US remains the biggest importer of oil from Venezuela. More than 40 percent of the crude oil from the country are exported to the United States.

But not only since Trump the United States see Latin America as your so-called backyard, as a legitimate political sphere of influence, in which they provide emergency. Already, US President James Monroe declared in 1823, the claim of the United States to supremacy on the American continent – the "Monroe doctrine" was in open competition with the European colonial powers. Since then, Washington has interfered in the political future of Latin America. In the second half of the 20th century. Century intervened in Washington with the military in several Latin American countries such as Grenada, Guatemala, Cuba and Nicaragua.

As foreign Minister, Mike Pompeo last Saturday in the UN security Council for the American Position in the Venezuela crisis campaigned, he pointed directly at Cuba. The socialist Regime in Havana is, in reality, the foreign Power to intervene in Venezuela, he said. No Regime was more responsible for the disastrous situation of the Venezuelan people to change. "Cuba has worsened the Situation clearly."

Putin

But Maduro's most important ally, Russia. President Vladimir Putin will stand firmly at his side, Maduro said on Wednesday in an Interview for the news Agency "Ria-Novosti". Every month, supplies of weapons from Russia are arriving in Venezuela, he added. Moscow's commitment is not surprising, because one has to lose in case of a coup in Venezuela – both geopolitically as well as economically. Russian Latin America, experts warn, nevertheless, that, now, the power struggle between Maduro and Guaidó to the field of confrontation with the United States. Venezuela, way too far.

Whether the experts belongs to, is uncertain, because Venezuela is considered to be the personal field of action by Igor Sechin, one of the closest Confidants of Putin. Sechin heads the state-controlled Oil company Rosneft, in which former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, the Supervisory Board is the boss. On Rosneft, the majority of the loans and investments of Russia in Venezuela run. In December, Putin, Maduro had promised five billion dollars for the Expansion of cooperation in the Oil sector – and a further billion for the gold recovery. Currently, Rosneft shares are on a downward spiral, because the Opposition has announced in the case of a makes a Revision of the Russian contracts acquisition. However, the potential losses in case of a roll-over are manageable, my Russian analysts. China will make it a lot harder. Exact Figures are not known, but it is assumed that Beijing has invested more than 50 billion dollars in Venezuela. Russia, by contrast, the 20 billion dollars.

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US national security Advisor memo from Bolton speculation stirs over U.S. military intervention in Venezuela

A military Engagement in Venezuela is excluded in Moscow, currently the most. It won't be for Putin's purposes, says Maxim Trudolyubov, was a commentator on the business newspaper "Vedomosti". Putin's Element to be "bottomless political holes," he writes, and adds with reference to Ukraine and Syria: "The Kremlin knows how to stir up conflicts, and is never in a hurry to finish you." Russia just need a "small presence, you can at any time deny" to show the US that you can't turn in the Region and exercise, as they liked.

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