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The elections in andalusia, the first test for an election year

Not all the matches have been played in Andalusia, baza national, or at least not with the same intensity. On the right side of the political spectrum, PP and C

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The elections in andalusia, the first test for an election year

Not all the matches have been played in Andalusia, baza national, or at least not with the same intensity. On the right side of the political spectrum, PP and Citizens became the campaign in a matter itself of a general election, while on the left, both the PSOE as a Forward Andalusia —the partnership between We and the United Left— have played to get wrapped up in the green and white of the flag of andalusia. The competition between the socialist candidate, the current president, Susana Díaz, and his rival for the left, Teresa Rodriguez, has been waged without just interference from their national leaders, Pedro Sanchez and Pablo Iglesias.

What they wanted or not the candidates of the PP, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, and Citizens, John Marin, their national leaders have done an intense campaign in Andalusia. The new president of the PP, Pablo Casado, has not been moved of the autonomous community, in spite of the bad omens of the surveys and the fact that a personal involvement so thoroughly will make you a participant in a greater extent to the result. Although somewhat less, the president of Citizens, Albert Rivera, has been very present, as well as the president of the party in Catalonia, Ines Arrimadas, andalusian origin. For the formation of Rivera is the great chance to snatch the PP condition first alternative to the socialist Government. And both he and the Married have competed to see who was more incisive in criticism of Pedro Sanchez.

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photo gallery election day, in images Review the 36 years of the PSOE in power Forward Andalusia strives to be the left of the PSOE, The PP test the ‘effect Married’ in the middle of the division of the right, the absence of discussion of migration amplifies the message of Vox and Married Catalonia and the threat of “right-wing” focus on the end-of-campaign

The immigration policy or the covenants of Sanchez with the independence and United we Can have been some of the issues put forward by Married and Rivera in their acts, in the same line that follow it in the national Parliament: Andalusia as a prolongation of the control session the Government in the Congress. This has been the strategic decision of the leaders of these two parties in the belief that in these elections is settled, who has the pre-eminence of the right, which the PP has been so true in Spain since the mid-eighties.

The situation to both, they have been complicated before the onset of Vox, the formation of the extreme right, whose results are not only of concern to the most affected, Married, and Rivera, but also to the left. In this case, the translation national would be direct, because if what we advertised the survey —some predict up to five seats— Andalusia was to become the entrance door of the party extremist in the democratic institutions, with a view to making the municipal and regional elections of may and even, if this were the case, of the general.

there is No such translation national in the case of the PSOE Kingbetting and United we Can. Provided that the PSOE again to win in the only autonomous community that has not known the alternation in 36 years, and do so at a considerable distance from the second match, the plans of Sánchez will remain unchanged. This is the thesis that the move to government sources, that even make sure that the result today will not have linkage with the date of the general election. “Influence over what happens to the remains of Franco and the rise in the minimum wage that the loss of 10 seats in Andalusia”, point sources, socialists close to the president. “Examines the right, not the left”, they proclaim these sources. This distance, which put the Government and the PSOE with the result that andalusian is not less than the established candidates Ahead of Andalusia in relation with United we Can. The autonomy of Teresa Rodriguez is out of all doubt and control. The national policy yes it will affect, however, in reverse, in the covenants, that with all probability will be needed to form a government.

The unknown of the covenants

The PSOE will win, according to all the polls, but far from having a majority to govern. The preference of the socialist andalusian is directed to a repetition of the agreement which have kept the Citizens the last four years. No one bet, however, that Rivera go to authorize that their parliamentarians in Andalusia conducive to the inauguration of the current president. Less than six months of the may elections, it is not plausible that Rivera go to compromise with the socialists when their growth comes substantially from the right.

The option with the more likely it would be that Ahead of Andalusia would allow the endowment of Diaz. During the campaign, the socialist leader has barely referred to his opponent by the left in order not to alienate possible voters IU disappointed to have finished your training diluted at the confluence with we Can.

The socialists have reached the end of the campaign, confident in the make a difference is loose with respect to the second. His victory would be so indisputable, and, if, as they also point to the polls, the centre-right does not add up, even with Vox, the PSOE seems difficult, according to party leaders, there is a blocking situation in the future Parliament when there is no other option of Government except yours. From the perspective of Sanchez, according to sources close, not concerned about the outcome andalusian always and when the loss of votes is slight and the result of Vox is not significant. None of the two conditions is guaranteed.

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