The distribution of the dispute starts : Blow up the social expenditure of the Federal budget?

The great work is on the way. The Cabinet decided on Wednesday, the benchmark for the Federal budget in 2020, presented by Finance Minister Olaf Scholz (SPD). It is so written in the "book of Destiny of the Nation" – the social-democratic financial politicians Kurt Heinig, has described the state budget, 70 years ago, so it was (although, of course, the budgets of the Länder and the municipal budgets in this book of Destiny).

The next Chapter. more exciting than those of recent years, telling of how happy a Minister of Finance in times of lush, flowing, tax revenue may be, in which there was a Surplus Now, the next Chapter title is: "The weather changes." The economy is not growing so luxuriantly.

"We have a Dent," said Carsten Schneider, the Parliamentary Manager of the SPD group in the Bundestag, "and now the question is, whether from the Dent a recovery." But for the time being, another question has the coalition Gives the Federal government too much social?

what is the budget for 2020, and the financial planning?

362,6 billion euros is to be able to spend the Federal ministries in the coming year – an increase of 1.7 percent compared to the year 2019. Last, the budget had grown significantly stronger. After 2020, the growth will be even lower. The distribution of the struggles in the coalition will increase, the leeway is smaller. For the time being, do not have to complain of the Minister, because 2020 can spend nearly all departments, even more than before.

Only the last-significantly better-off ministries for education and development stagnate. But the view in the clearly close-knit financial planning makes it clear what the budget dispute in the Grand coalition will focus: on The conflict theme of the social expenditure are increasingly.

How is the development in the household?

Ostensibly is first of all a fight to the coalition agreement agreed on the basic pension – "respect-pension" in the case of the SPD, the CSU has called her concept of the "pension parachute", the CDU waits. The Minister of labour, Mr Hubertus Heil presented social democratic proposal of a kind of minimum pension for low-income earners who have worked for many years and yet is only a Mini-pension, probably to an Output increase of five to six billion euros.

The confirmed Scholz on Wednesday, as he called the estimate "highly plausible". The CSU's proposal would cause more expenses in the amount of 600 million euros. If the sum of the in-between, presumably somewhere – 2020 budget is to be effective, the coalition talks.

graphic: Tsp/Böttcher

In any case, the social expenditure of the Federal government to grow stronger, however, than in the medium-term financial planning currently provided. And in this perspective up to the year 2023, the part of the budget law, is the actual explosives. According to the Cabinet submission of Scholz, the Einzeletat of the Social and labour Ministry will grow until 2023, while the increase in other departments is rather narrow. If you have any. Because some Ministers are faced with stagnating expenditure (such as transport and health), others fall back even (the ministries of home Affairs, economy, defence and development).

Overall, social spending by the Federal government rise above all of the ministries across currently 179,5 billion euros to just under 200 billion euros until 2023. The proportion for years at about 50 percent, with only mild upward trend, it will be after the financial planning 2023, almost 53 percent. More than half of which is attributable to the tax subsidy for the statutory pension insurance. This includes subsidies for health insurance or family benefits.

you Can get more social spending on the Federal government?

In the interview is that the Federal government assumes the costs of accommodation for the long-term unemployed, social assistance recipients and asylum seekers and allow States and municipalities to be relieved. On the Federal budget expenditure of up to seven billion euros in the year to come.

in Addition, could fall to the Federal government the cost of the DDR-supplementary pension systems, started in 1991 in the statutory pension scheme, fully – previously, the Eastern countries are paying a part of it, want to get rid of. Scholz would then have to schedule up to three billion euros in the year in the Sozialetat. And the Prime Minister should, with the Desire to prevail, that the Federal grant for the integration of non-driven costs for refugees as strongly as planned, it will also be more expensive for the Federal government.

What are the coalition parties say?

in view of the development of some Ministers of the Union and the budget politicians grumble. A big Plus in Hubertus Heil, a Minus in the case of Horst Seehofer, Ursula von der Leyen, and Peter Altmaier, head of the – I don't like them. Development Minister Gerd Müller (CSU) has written Scholz even a furious letter, because his budget will shrink in the planning of 10.2 to 9.5 billion euros.

In the Cabinet on Wednesday: Minister of social Affairs Hubertus Heil, the Finance Minister, Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor Angela Merkel.Photo: Kay Nietfeld/dpa

The CDU MP Eckhardt Rehberg accuses the Vice-Chancellor, Scholz placed "in a conflict between his roles as Finance Minister and SPD party politicians". The coalition had done "a very good economic Situation" too much. Now it should change course in budget planning. Rehberg has not least the Social. "Here we can not agree to any further growing up. The basic pension without a means test, as demanded by the SPD, is not financially viable.“

In the SPD this is not good. The SPD budget politician Johannes Kahrs rejected the criticism of the Etatplan of Scholz. The Union Minister should stop whining and start in their budgets to reallocate. The accusation, Scholz spare with the Union ministries, is a closer look anyway, not durable. All the SPD Ministers in the planning for 2023 less money – but with the one exception of the name of salvation.

As to the high increase in social spending can explain?

That all the expenses not be in the planning less than 2020, only the Sozialetat has mainly one reason: Scholz had to support the budget in 2020, significantly lower growth forecasts than we had assumed in the autumn. In January, the government lowered the main guide for the planning of the budget: Instead of a Plus of 1.8 percent in gross domestic product reported for 2019 only 1.0 percent were to be adopted.

That was drastically and created with a blow a hole in the Budget of five billion euros per year until 2023. Because lower growth means lower tax revenues, which are then written into the Budget automatically. Scholz had to drive all future approaches only once.

Otherwise, he could have been the ultimate goal of the coalition, the black Zero, not comply with. And the goal also applies to the planning until 2023. Only in one Department, it is not quite so simple, the switch just to kill. Because the largest Item in social expenditure are either provided with a legal claim, such as in the case of basic security, mothers ' pension, and unemployment benefits. Or they are commitments because of the demographic development, the pension grants. And to plan with zero rounds, or even cuts, the Unions, the Minister of Finance, the colleagues do not get.

Could it be in the budget even close?

Scholz would have to engage in even deeper, if the growth forecast would have to be reduced a second Time. Then the tax estimates in may and November is likely to trigger again a correction is necessary, and would exacerbate the debate to social issues. Because the Federal government is not only an immense Sozialetat, but should also be the engine for economic policy.

Although Scholz has praised the coalition on Wednesday that no government have invested so much, and that the discharge was settled by the abolition of the solidarity surcharge for 90 percent of the payers in the budget. But with each Weakening of the growth, whether it be through the Brexit, or the global trade disputes, the call for more investment and tax all incentives.

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Carsten Schneider saves exhorts, therefore, the coalition: "We must do everything so that the domestic demand is growing," he said to the daily mirror. And comes to speak on the Social. The SPD proposed basic pension would help to increase demand. "The 200 euros more don't go in the saving ratio, are consumed." The increase in the disposable income of households with lower and middle earnings also economic and political importance.