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Syria : peace must wait

At the end of a bloody year in Syria, Russia, Turkey and Iran wanted to distinguish themselves with a diplomatic effort on the international stage. The foreign Ministers of the three countries came together in Geneva this week, a constitutional Commission to draft a new Constitution for the war-ravaged country and paving the way for democratic elections are to be free to make. However, the attempt failed, the Minister got beyond declarations of intent. After almost eight years of war, the hope for a just post-war order had to be adjourned again.

Since the beginning of the year Moscow, Ankara and Tehran in the so-called Astana work process in the establishment of the constitutional Convention. This Trio negotiated in parallel to the peace efforts of the United Nations, aims to involve the world organization but not least because of the foreseeable costs for Syria's reconstruction.

What will become of Assad?

The proposed constitutional Commission shall consist of 150 members, of which one-third from the ranks of the government, the Opposition and the civil society. Especially the composition of the delegation from the civil society, however, is controversial. In October, Damascus demanded that the UN should withdraw its proposals for the composition of this Delegation, because in many government critics.

In Geneva should succeed in a breakthrough. Russia's foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his colleagues from Turkey and Iran, Mevlut Cavusoglu, and Javad Zarif, wanted their proposals to the Commission by the outgoing UN-Syria Staffan de Mistura officer can approve. And then there was, once again, optimistic-sounding pronouncements without agreement. The Commission should resume in January, the work, - assured the chief Turkish diplomat Cavusoglu. However, no one knows how to do that. Mistura spoke of a marathon that had not yet been completed.

To a process of reconciliation through the planned constitutional Commission is currently thinking anyway. The Regime and the Opposition distrust so deep that each side has of the other suspected to want the Constitution to work for their own interests capers. Controversial, not only the composition of the panel, but also with the main task. The Opposition wants would be a totally new Constitution for a ruler Bashar al Assad is probably not the place. The government in Damascus wants to reform, by contrast, the existing Constitution – to keep Assad in Power.

a key figure in Putin

The Astana-Trio is also divided. Turkey supports the Syrian Opposition, while Russia and Iran support the Regime. With the fate of Assad could become friends Ankara if necessary. However, the Turkish government will not accept any regional autonomy in a post-war Syria. Exactly, the main demand of the Syrian Kurds. Misturas successor, the Norwegian Diplomat, Geir Pedersen, is starting his first day of work at 7. January with big problems to be faced.

Not least because of Vladimir Putin. The declared will of the Russian President is over, nothing is happening in Syria. And Putin is one of those which penetrate to a constituent body. The Kremlin chief has not discovered about his heart for Syria's democratic Opposition, or decided to let Assad fall. Rather, it is his reconstruction of the destroyed country – and the required money. Estimated US $ 400 billion needed to be. This gigantic sum is not to come to Putin's ideas of Russia's state budget, but from the West and Arab States is to be applied.

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