State elections in 2019 : the green upswing East?

In the General election in 2017, the Green ended up with 8.9% as the smallest of the six parties in Parliament, but they are now for months in the height of flight. In the surveys, you have lost them, in the meantime, the SPD in the state elections in Bavaria and Hesse, achieved record results. But the acid test is this fall, when the three state Parliament elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia are pending. Here, too, it goes uphill-to-date in surveys. The campaign strategy for the East is one of the Central themes at the beginning of the year retreat for the Green-Federal Executive Board in Frankfurt (Oder).

How Green are in the East?

Germany was for the Greens, always a country divided. In Parts of Western Germany they rose in the last few years, the people's party. Since 2011, the Greens in Baden-Württemberg, Winfried Kretschmann, the Minister President for 2016, you are in the southwest, even the strongest political force. In the East, they had to tremble, however, regularly because of the Five-percent-hurdle. At the last Bundestag election, they came in all Eastern countries, with the exception of Brandenburg – not more than five percent. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, it flew 2016 from the state legislature. But Recently, a trend is turning. In Brandenburg and Thuringia, the Greens in the polls recently, with twelve per cent to two-digit values. A significant Plus in comparison to the last state election in 2014, where they were with 6.2 or 5.7 percent in the diet fed. In Saxony they were last at nine per cent compared to 5.7 per cent in the last election.

where does the current strength of the party?

In the East, to benefit the Green of the nationwide mood. The High-are several reasons for this. So it has paid off for the Greens, that they were after the last election to the Bundestag is ready to take on responsibility – also in an unusual constellation such as Jamaica with the Union and the FDP. In the negotiations they made it clear that they would have made painful compromises. At the same time fought vehemently for Central demands such as the exit strategy from Coal, so, what the party stands for.

of Course, the Greens also benefit from the weakness of the other parties, especially the SPD. The state Parliament elections in Bavaria and Hesse have shown that they are also able to make CSU and CDU voters away. This is due to the two new party leaders, Anna Lena Baerbock, and Robert Habeck, the are for almost a year in office. They appear unused as the top personnel of other parties have established a different language and a different style of politics. This is apparently also in the East.

Successful Duo. The Federal Chairman Robert Habeck and Anna Lena Baerbock to come this far.Photo: Bernd von Jutrczenka/dpa

the green "boom in the East Can be" permanent?

polls are not election results, Green point-politicians again and again. But leading Green smell now is the Chance to get to the East away from the urban strongholds of a foot in the door. Attention you have taken a recent satisfaction survey. In an opinion barometer of the "Leipzig people's daily" almost every fifth Respondent that the Greens would be available to him the substance of the next. No other party reached the East higher values.

This does not however alter the fact that the Green in the East still have a structural weakness. Of the 75000 members with less than ten percent are in the East of Germany active. When in Brandenburg, the choice to queue for battles, therefore, been a supporter of Berlin in order to help the poster with glue. For this summer, the Federation of the Greens calls for the "election holiday" in the East. But even if the Green between the Baltic sea and the Thuringian forest are not yet as strong as in the West, is changing something here. Nationwide, the Greens have won in the past year, 10,000 new members. Disproportionately high growth in the East.

Green are rooted in the communities

This is due to the fact that the Greens beat meanwhile, roots in the local communities. Thus, it was selected in Greifswald, 2015, for the first time in Eastern Germany Green for the mayor, in Frankfurt (Oder) in 2017, a green building Department. Election results in Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria or most recently the state of Hesse are also therefore possible, because the Greens are here since decades, in the municipalities, as a form, a force that is perceptible. The more that happens now in the East, the stronger the anchor.

The Green is also more and more responsibility, as a possible partner in government. In Thuringia, the party would continue the red-red-green coalition. In Saxony-Anhalt, the Greens were in demand after the last election as a Partner of the CDU and the SPD a majority beyond the AfD. This role could you play to the three elections in the autumn.

Why the Greens were so weak in the East?

there are many attempts at explanation. For one, it is because since the fall of a part of the potential voters – especially younger, well-educated women – are drawn to the West. Also, less swing voters in the East can get it from the SPD. The Greens were also perceived primarily as an eco-and occupy a topic that, especially in structurally weak regions, was not necessarily dominant. After the heat of the summer may have been the perception of this topic changed.

what topics want to score the Green in the East?

In the centre of the social cohesion. The living conditions in the country. "How do we overcome it, that people are suspended in certain regions?", is one of the issues raised by the Green-chief Habeck. It starts with Bus and train connections, and goes to the nursing staff and midwife care. But also social inequalities, wants to broach the issue of the Green guide more. A concrete example brought Habeck at the beginning of this year, He suggested a kind of state "venture capital" in the amount of 25,000 euros for young entrepreneurs. For heirs in the West may not be a big deal, said Habeck. But in East Germany, where no major assets would be inherited, be different, and thus a step towards "greater equality".

How the other parties respond?

With the survey results, the Greens, the political pressure on the party is increasing. Especially the AfD shoots more and more on the eco-and build a left of the enemy. Georg Pazderski, AfD Federal Executive Board and the Berlin-in-chief, wrote recently, a 13-page pamphlet on how to get to the Green "a" to attack. These are a "elite project for the well-heeled minorities" and would represent a danger for the society, said. Also on the AfD-country Congress of the party in Brandenburg at the weekend, AfD leader Alexander Gauland and country head Andreas Kalbitz made sentiment against the Green. Thus, the right-wing populists not stand there long alone. FDP-Chef Christian Lindner divided in three king make a striking, often against the Greens and their Chairman Habeck. Even in the Union for the eco-in the meantime, as a "political opponent", such as CSU General Secretary Markus Blume in an Interview with the "süddeutsche Zeitung" said. He accuses the Greens, to operate the policy by populist fear-mongering and to split the society.

it Can go nationwide with the Green back down?

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exam to the start of The year, Green more Europe

Cordula Eubel

want to experienced After the nuclear disaster of Fukushima in March 2011, the Green a similar flight, but after that it went downhill again. At the election of the house of deputies in Berlin in September 2011 Renate Künast had to conclude that it was sufficient for the office of the Governing mayor. Some of the Green, however, point out that the current Green-developed values – in contrast to the Fukushima-shock – "self" and thus more stable.