The elections in andalusia have led to an political upheaval: PP and PSOE have obtained the worst results in its history, while growing up Citizens and emerged a new party on the extreme right. We analysed the results of all the census sections (that correspond to neighborhoods of about 1,450 people) at the same time, considering statistics like the age of voters, their level of education, or its origin. These are the patterns more clear than we have found.
PSOE and the PP resist among seniors
In neighborhoods with more people of advanced age, the two traditional parties have retained more vote. The effect is particularly intense with the PP. In the municipalities where a third of voters have more than 64 years, the conservative party is about 30% of votes on average. Is something that survey data have long pointed out, the aging of the two major parties and especially the PP.
The PSOE resists in areas with fewer studies
In the sections with less university, the PSOE gained close to 40% of the votes on average, while in those where the university students are in the majority their votes did not reach the 20%. The trend is the opposite with the PP, Citizens, and Vox, you tend to get better results in neighborhoods with more college. It is likely that this has to do with income, because people with middle income and high income tend to have a higher level of education.
The new grow with income municipal
we do Not have data on income for the neighborhood, but at the level of the municipality. When you analyze it, what we find is that the three new parties —Vox, Forward Andalusia and Citizens— have achieved more support in municipalities with average incomes or higher. The opposite case is represented by the PSOE, which has retained more voters in localities with less income.
The new ones are more urban
The new parties get more votes in the cities. Citizens, for example, barely reaches 10% of votes on average in towns of less than 1,000 inhabitants, but those that pass the 10,000 round 20%. Again, the opposite case is the PSOE, which has stood much better in towns of less than 5,000 inhabitants.
The income and the size of the municipalities are variables always very related. In the larger cities the salaries are higher and middle income also. However, it is important to note that both variables maintain their effect separately. Given two peoples of the same size, for example, the likelihood is that the PSOE has the most votes in the lower income and Vox, and Forward to Andalusia and Citizens will do better in the more rich.
The key of the mortgages
Another variable striking is less common: the percentage of households with a mortgage outstanding. It seems to divide the neighborhoods that vote for the parties new and old. Where there are more households that do not already have outstanding mortgages, both PP and PSOE are better. In contrast, in neighborhoods with more households with mortgages, the three new parties achieve better results. If we add the households that living in rented to the analysis, the results do not change: the new parties do better in neighborhoods where there are fewer people with home-ownership and paid.
What capture this variable? Probably is related with the age of the families that dominate in a neighborhood. Of course, it will be also linked to income and the size of the municipality —because in the towns the housing is cheaper— but the relationship exists even when we control for these differences. Given two neighborhoods with the same proportion of elderly people, two municipalities equal in income and population, the PP and the PSOE will probably best in the neighborhood with less people mortgaged.
immigration, one of the keys of Vox
a few days Ago we show that Vox had grown more in those municipalities with the most immigrants from outside the European Union (mostly african and south american). The following graph shows the same data for each match.
What we see is that Vox won more votes in the neighborhoods of the municipalities with the most immigrants in the community. There is also a relationship weaker with Citizens and the PP, but that propensity does not reach the statistical significance when we consider at the same time, other characteristics such as the size or income of the municipality. The case of Vox itself is significant and in addition intense in magnitude. According to a linear model simple (which is described at the end of this text), Vox would be around 10% of votes in a municipality typical, but if in a Makrobet town identical to the immigrant population exceeds 30%, the votes expected for Vox would be the double.
The PP has lost ground in favour of Vox and Citizens
The following graphic shows how has changed the vote in each of the 5.974 census sections since the general elections of 2016. Represents the variation of votes of each party (increase or decrease) faced with the variation of the remaining forces.
The PP has lost more votes in those census tracts where Citizens and Vox have been uploaded. This suggests a transfer of voters in these neighborhoods would have voters of the PP in 2016 who have now voted on by Citizens or Vox. In general it is not possible to make this inference —because we could fall into a ‘fallacy ecological’— but in this case the hypothesis seems to be clear and to see, moreover, reinforced by the survey data that have been published.
Vox grew more in the neighborhood of Cs and PP
In the above chart there are indications of a flow of voters from the PP towards Vox, but there are hardly any clues to find out what other people have voted for the party of the extreme right. Vox got the most votes in the places where PSOE and Forth Andalusia made it worse, but the relationship is weak and may be due in part to the abstention. There is also no trace of a large flow from Citizens, which has in fact grown more strongly in the same places that Vox. to estimate these movements are better at the polls, which suggest a cross-flow: Citizens would have lost voters to Vox, but would more than compensate for taking her votes to the PP, the PSOE and we Can.
What you do show the data of neighborhoods is that Vox have entered with force in those places where the PP was imposed in 2016, at the last general election. Where the folk got more than 50% of the votes, the party to its right has been around 20%. These are not the only grounds for the Vox, but yes the best.
Sources. The map with the census tracts of Andalucía has been built from the file provided by the INE. The electoral results of the elections andalusian of 2018 and the general elections in 2016 by section census have been calculated from the data by polling published by the Junta de Andalucía and the Ministry of the Interior. The sociodemographic data on population, age, studies, properties, or nationality have been obtained from the last official census prepared by the INE in 2011, except the data of municipalities, which are in 2016, and the offers the Board.
statistical Analysis. To choose what variables to represent we have used a linear regression model very simple. The model tries to capture the relationship between the vote to a party and different variables, taking them all into account at the same time. The variables included are: proportion of women, over 64 years of age, born outside of the EU, with basic studies and college; percentage of dwellings that have been released, in regime of rent, with a mortgage payment pending, with less than 45m2 of surface or with more than 105m2; households with 1 single person or with more than five. In addition, we have incorporated three variables of the municipality: its population, the percentage of children born outside of the European Union and the average income per taxpayer.
The model to find the following propensities as statistically significant. The PSOE wins support in municipalities with less income and less born outside of the EU, also in neighborhoods with more people with basic studies or lower and with less outstanding mortgages. The PP is stronger in neighborhoods with more older people, with studies and without a mortgage. the Citizens tends to win more votes in municipalities with more income, and in neighborhoods with more college and more outstanding mortgages. the Forward Andalusia obtained more votes in municipalities with income higher and with fewer immigrants from outside the EU, and in neighborhoods with more young people and fewer university students (perhaps because they are still students). Finally, Vox is stronger in municipalities with more aliens, and in neighborhoods with more studies and more mortgages.