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Security conference in Munich : The old world order disintegrates, and this is not only bad

half The world comes to conversations after Munich, and one would like to believe that these conversations make the earth safer and more secure that you stop the wars, the threat of conflict and prevent new risks such as climate change and the manipulative use of digital technology to narrow. Alone, it is not likely.

The number of wars is increasing. They terminate with the conclusion of Peace and reconstruction. You can only change your intensity and the type of discharge, whether Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, or Ukraine. Treaties to limit nuclear weapons from to run or to be broken; it is an Era threatens nuclear rearmament. Experts talk of the return of the conflict of the great powers.

For years, the annual complain of the reports of the conference changing linguistic Generalisations to the conclusion that The familiar international order does not lose its binding power, a new one is visible. "Boundless crises, reckless disturbers, helpless guardian," was in 2016 the title. 2018 sound, the hope is that the view into the abyss to rescue mobilized forces: "To the abyss and back?" In 2019, it is called "The great Puzzle – who assembles the parts?" Pessimists could understand it so: The world is in tatters. Who's going to clean the shards?

The expiration of the order to be strengthened the risks

The old order was based on a System of institutions, principles and agreements that had been created by the Western democracies: the United Nations, the International monetary Fund, world trade organisation, Nato, EU, OSCE, the Charter of fundamental rights, prohibition of proliferation of nuclear weapons... But this procedure only unfolds if the right crusher consequences to fear. So if someone protects the order. Long were the USA, lose it but the interest. And whether the global public opinion accepted in the world the role of power at all, depends differently than in the past of who is US President, and how it occurs. A Donald Trump succeed. China or Russia do not want to accept – and be able to – the task. You have set up is convenient to use the order, to the extent that it serves their interests, and they run to when they hurt you.

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The expiration of the order, order reinforced the dangers. The new is not yet visible, but it is not only bad. It forces companies and countries to Think about what options you have and which of them are better or worse for you. Perhaps, covenants, many have written off already win, then again attractive.

is now frequently spoken of the "G 2": The U.S. is as old and China as the new super of the world would lead. Open to be, how co-operation and confrontation in the mix. That would be in Europe's interest? China has not opened up in the last decade, as hoped for democracy and the rule of law. China is authoritarian.

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security conference in Munich, a world without Confidence

Christoph von Marschall

The Western model remains appealing to many people. Who needs to leave the home, want to Europe or America, not to China, Russia or in the Arab world. Europe and America also have allies. China and Russia will not. The rule-based order is not yet dead. Given the Alternatives, their value is growing, especially for Europe. The competition of the models of Society returns.

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