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Pia Gripenberg: Tarry would like to stay, but not for long, is the EU's message to the british

Theresa Mays loss was expected in EU circles, but was certainly larger than most people thought. The EU Brexitförhandlare Michel Barnier was quick to tweet that the EU has done what it can as it is more important than ever that the union is preparing to the Uk, leaves without a contract.

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1105552915480150016

But a hard Brexit is not immediately available when the EU's other 27 member states plan for the next step.

Their point is that british parliamentarians on Wednesday evening will vote down the proposal to leave the EU without agreement. Such is the mathematics when Brussels expects EU-friends and brexitörer among the 650 members of parliament in Westminster.

Theresa May. Photo: Jean Francois Badias/AP

on Thursday evening, decides the same parliament to request an extension of article 50, then the notice period of membership of the EU. When will the representatives of the british government, perhaps Theresa May, maybe someone else if she departs after the defeat, turn to Brussels and ask to Brexitdagen pushed up.

in Order to give the british the extension must EU27 be united. If you look at the various statements made it is not given to member states to grant the Uk this. For example, representatives of the French government determined that you want to hear a good argument from the british to agree to postpone the Brexitdagen.

France's minister of EUROPEAN affairs Nathalie Loiseau said last week when she visited London that there must be a reason to grant an extension of the negotiations.

https://twitter.com/IciLondres/status/1103712007465959427

But it is the rhetoric just for the moment. It will change at the end of the week. Most recently at the EU summit on the additional a week.

, it becomes the EU until the end of the driver up to the Uk crashing out of the EU without the agreement. Too large economic values are at stake for the drastic measure. In addition, it creates a huge concern among many britons living in the eu-27 and EU-citizens in the united kingdom. To it will that much of the good relationships which remain between the EU and the british are destroyed.

Even if the EUROPEAN union fear that if a number of months, the situation is exactly the same as today, nothing has changed, will the british still have to get his extension.

the Big question will be how long new notice period which the british want.

to London to think about the short term in the subject. A maximum of two months. In the EU system are the critical date of 23 may.

Then, open the first polling stations in the Netherlands for the european Elections. More than 370 million people in 27 member states will choose who will represent them in the EUROPEAN parliament. In Sweden's elections on Sunday 26 may.

From the EU's point of view, they are quite complicated, and perhaps legally, illegally, to a country that remains a member of the union does not participate in the election.

and like to participate in the choice of problem occurs. The places that will become available when british mep leaves are already allocated to other member states. Sweden, for example, to select 21 members, one more than in the past.

Brussels hope, therefore, that something might happen under an extension in a couple of months, which breaks the deadlock. To re-begin to discuss legal and contractual texts with the same people at the helm want to absolutely no.

on the other hand would the policy change, which a new prime minister in the Uk, to be able to change the conditions. As well as a new election. Or a second referendum on the EU membership.

Or that the miracle happens and the Uk decides to remain in the EU.

Read more: ”Brexit Preppers” bunkers up in british homes in the face of Brexit

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