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Michael Winiarski: major Powers open for an arms race

They stand there side by side next to each other at the National Air and Space Museum in Washington DC, two vapentyper which in his time were regarded as potent

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Michael Winiarski: major Powers open for an arms race

They stand there side by side next to each other at the National Air and Space Museum in Washington DC, two vapentyper which in his time were regarded as potential causes of a devastating kärnvapenkatastrof: An american Pershing-II and soviet SS-20. Two missiles were considered to be the most dangerous weapons in its class. They were banned in the INF treaty in 1987, and 2,700 of these medeldistansmissiler was scrapped within a few years.

Soon it is time for this weapon type to be picked out of their museum existence. Both the united states and Russia to re-develop new, even more advanced medeldistansmissiler that can reach the goal of motsidan in a very short time.

in the cards was doomed to go under was not unexpected. If not sooner, it was clear already in October 2018, when Donald Trump declared that the united states had no intention to pull out of the INF, with the justification that Russia has for many years been in breach of the agreement.

According to the united states, Russia had built a new medeldistansmissil, a cruise missile of the type Novator 9M729, which was prohibited under the agreement and which can reach targets in Europe.

Vladimir Putin's response – that the new missile was not a violation of the agreement – made it clear that Moscow had no intention to back off. Or than less to scrap the 100 missiles that have been manufactured.

In the war of words that really has been going on since 2014, when Barack Obama was still president, claimed in Russia that the us accusations were false and was just a pretext for the US to withdraw from the contract. In fact, it was, it was the US that violated the agreement through its deployment of a missile defense system in eastern and Central europe: the Ramps antimissilvapnen could be used for avskjutningar of offensive cruise missiles.

how the new type of Russian medeldistansmissil is not a violation of the INF treaty, which clearly stipulates that it is forbidden to possess, produce, test, and deploy land-based missiles that have a range between 500 and 5,000 kilometers.

On the other hand, does not appear to Trump to be particularly anxious to save the agreement. Namely, it is not only, or primarily, Russia as the scrapping of the INF treaty is directed against. The white house has declared that it wants to develop new vapentyper, including missiles, against China's military expansion in the western Pacific. China is arming itself up with both the tactical weapons that medeldistansmissiler in their local area. It can be done without legal obstacles, because China is not a party to the INF agreement.

Why then is nedrustningsexperter particularly concerned that the INF treaty goes under? The reason is the same as that which led to the agreement concluded between the then Sovjetledaren Mikhail Gorbachev and U.S. president Ronald Reagan 32 years ago. Then had both the USA and the Soviet union placed out medeldistanskärnvapen in a divided Europe. When Moscow in the late 1970s deployed the SS-20-missiles, said the united states and Nato in the beginning of the 1980s to deploy Pershing missiles.

in less than ten minutes for a nuclear warhead to reach Moscow, or Paris, there was an imminent risk that a major war was triggered because of a misunderstanding.

And now perhaps we are there again, if not a miraculous shift occurs in the White house and the Kremlin. It is not likely, because the INF treaty is just one in a row of dead or dying disarmament agreements.

It may seem serious enough that the united states and Russia will now develop and modernise, and possibly deploy new nuclear weapons in Europe.

Worse is that the united states and Russia, the entire nuclear arsenals in the cards for the first time since 1972, can be without binding arms control. Already, in two years, 2021, the expiration of the current New Start treaty of 2010 limits the number of strategic nuclear weapons.

has so far not said anything specifically about his view on the New Start. It is in any case running out of time if it will be current with an extension. The president's national security adviser John Bolton has repeatedly condemned both the New Start as the INF as ”unilateral disarmament”. Previously, Bolton George W Bush to pull the united states out of the ABM treaty (Antiballistic Missile Treaty).

How it will go with the New Start, the last major disarmament treaty, which is still in force, it is impossible to predict. Trump has so far listened to Bolton, a person who seems to want to tear up all the international rustningsavtal that the united states has concluded. It was he who pushed Trump to take the united states out of Iran agreement on nuclear energy.

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