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Michael Winiarski: Rival great powers determines the Venezuelan destiny

Four days after the US-supported opposition leader Juan Guaidó explained that Venezuela was in ”the final stages” of a alternation of power sitting Nicolás Maduro is still in power.

the military leadership did not listen to the call to abandon the president. Thus emerged the ”Operación Libertad”, the opposition attempts to seize power – or with the Maduro word ”coup” – as a setback.

certainly. On the contrary, it looks as if his position has been further weakened. There are no indications that the White house has given up the ambition to remove Maduro. Some high-ranking officers have also gone over to the Guaidó, but popular protests have quickly been knocked down by the regime even loyal security forces.

James Stavridis, retired U.S. admiral and former head of the U.s. Southern Command, said in an interview in Foreign Policy to Guaidó yet should not be counted out: ”the Trend is towards reduced chances for Maduro to remain in power. The country is in a downward spiral, and the opposition has a strategic momentum”.

So then what will determine the outcome of the power struggle? In addition to how the growing humanitarian and political crisis developed and how the military set up, it is in a high degree the united states and the rival major powers ' actions that affect the outcome.

no easy schedules, especially when it comes to AMERICA's role as empire. Donald Trumps national security adviser John Bolton recently said: ”the monroe doctrine is alive and well. It is our hemisphere,” if the whole of the american continent, as Washington since the 1800s, regarded as its exclusive sphere of influence.

The ongoing crisis shows that Trumps the administration is not speaking with one voice. The president himself – and it seems to be one of his few consistent beliefs – has always said to be against the united states intervenes for regime change in other countries.

The principle is not shared by the three hawks that Trump set to manage Venezuela: John Bolton, the foreign minister Mike Pompeo and representative for Venezuela, Elliot Abrams.

all three have expressed himself extremely offensively on Venezuela. Mike Pompeo claimed that Maduro was about to escape to Cuba in a all systems go plan, but that the russians at the last moment persuaded him to stay. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov warned his american colleague for ”the most serious consequences” if the US continues with its ”aggression”.

John Bolton and Elliot Abrams argued that there existed a secret agreement with the three high venezuelan power (minister of defence, the Supreme court president and the commander of the presidentgardet) to change the page, is a deal that obviously has not been completed.

According to James Stavridis, it is likely that the ultimate reason why Maduro did not give up was the Russian pressure, and the presence of the cuban security staff. A few months ago were brought a hundred or so Russian spetsnazsoldater to protect the presidential palace in Caracas.

in this world oljerikaste country. The united states has expressed concern to Beijing is trying to gain control through the investment and credit (”loans for oil”). By 2016, China had lent Venezuela $ 60 billion (corresponding to sek 570 billion). It is three times more than Russia, which has invested 17 billion dollars.

According to Evan Ellis, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, there is no operator in Latin america, with the possible exception of Cuba, which has so much control over Maduro fate as his promoters in China.

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