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Michael Winiarski: Divisions in the White house on Iran - a war or negotiations?

Many analysts have begun to compare the development in the ordkriget between the united states and Iran with the run-up to the disastrous war in Iraq in 2003. But to decipher all the conflicting characters is not easy.

One day exchange the united states and Iran, and a reciprocal threat of war and loading up the military of the Persian gulf.

the Next day, " says president Donald Trump that he wants to sit down and negotiate with Iran's leaders. The immediate response from Tehran, however, is: No, thank you.

in the region is undoubtedly. The united states has placed strategic bombers of the type B-52 on the military base of Al Udeid in Qatar and has sent the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln to the Persian gulf.

the united states has also accused Iran of posing a ”credible threat” against american interests in the area. What these threats exactly consists in the has not specified. American sources claim that the Iranstödda of shia militias in Iraq are planning attacks against U.S. military personnel and diplomats who are stationed in the country.

It would explain why all ”non-essential personnel” at the US missions in Baghdad and Erbil now called home. The ominous is that war is usually heralded by such a measure.

to the escalation. The irgc commander, general Hossein Salami declared on Wednesday: ”We stand at the brink of a full-scale confrontation with the enemy”.

there will be a number of so far unexplained injuries on four saudi arabian tankers outside the United arab emirates and the coast at the strait of Hormuz - the key waterway to the Persian gulf where more than a third of the world's crude oil passes. Who was behind the sabotagen is unclear, but U.S. spokesmen suspect an iranian hand.

Meanwhile, the houthi rebels in Yemen, supported by Iran, carried out the drönarattacker against the saudi oil pipelines.

All of this should speak to a war that Trumps the nearest men, the adviser John Bolton and secretary Mike Pompeo, have long been ivrat for.

to give the shaft the Bolton Pompeo? It is an open question. Iran has exposed a deep divide within the Trumps of administration; between the hardliners and the president of the republic, which signals that he prefers a negotiated solution.

According to reports in the Washington Post has Trump fired up against Bolton-Pompeo, for they have been so quick to engage in krigsplanering. The president is said to dislike all the talk of ”regime change” in Iran, it is reminiscent of what preceded the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. An invasion that Trump sees as a big mistake.

Trump has denied all the particulars of a conflict with their advisors and referred to them as ”fake news”:

”There is no internal power struggle of some kind. Different views are expressed, and I take the ultimate decision.... I'm sure that Iran wishes to talk soon,” he wrote on Twitter.

Even if a twittermeddelande just a twittermeddelande is it also Trumps the most important means of communication with the outside world. Trump's repeated calls to the leaders in Tehran to negotiate suggests that the threat of war in the Middle east is not imminent.

the united states out of the kärnenergiavtalet that Barack Obama negotiated until 2015. He wants to replace it with a new agreement, which also focuses on what the U.S. sees as Iran's expansionism and support to terrorists in the Middle east.

All it requires negotiations, and these requirements do not learn prästregimen in Tehran without swallowing. But Trump wants to open a channel for contacts with Iran. On Thursday, he got to visit the White house of the president of Switzerland Ueli Maurer, who believed to offer their services as mediators.

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