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KI: the Swedish economy against the slowdown

the Boom culminated during the first half of this year, and even if the boom continues, the next two years, the economy is moving into a avmattningsfas, according to the national institute of economic Research.

Uncertainty in the business environment and at home it has done to the confidence indicators for both households and businesses has fallen back in recent months.

has been reduced and the trend looks set to continue so the next few quarters, write KI. It is expected to contribute to a subdued growth of GDP during the first quarter of 2019.

In december of KI is:s barometerindikator still at the level of 106,3. The opening konfidensindikatorerna has moved relatively little from the previous month, write KI in a press release, but notes that the picture is fragmented.

the boom has slowed, but we remain in an economic boom, " says Ylva Hedén Westerdahl.

the Unemployment rate has reached bottom and is expected to increase slightly in the future.

KI makes the assessment that the bank will wait to raise its key interest rate in February 2019. Lower inflation and lower GDP growth than expected means that the Riksbank does not increase on Thursday, the track KI.

A new government will not be able to pick up spenderbyxorna, according to the institute.

the scope for unfunded reforms in an amending budget, says the institute's forecast manager Ylva Hedén Westerdahl at the press conference.

The political uncertainty also creates an uncertain position for public finances in the future, but is not expected to affect GDP so far, according to the institute.

M-KD-the budget that will now become applicable to 2019 is assessed as neutral by the national institute of economic Research, even if it contains more bets than the austere övergångsbudgeten. M-KD-the budget includes mainly tax cuts for households.

Had you not made these tax cuts had household disposable income is weak, " says KI, the chief of the Urban Hansson Brusewitz.

for the manufacturing sector rises slightly and remains at a significantly higher level than normal.

”Manufacturing companies remain positive about the orderstockarnas size and expect a strong development of the production in the next few months,” writes KI.

Also the confidence indicator in construction rose marginally.

In the service sector and among households is rising pessimism, according to the institute's indicators.

Read also: 85.000 more are expected to get work this year

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