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Grand coalition : Hubertus Heil has presented a kind of divorce letter

At first glance, it is just a note for the North German local news: In Bremen, the CDU moves to four months before the state election in a poll of one per cent points ahead of the SPD – 25 to 24, reported on Friday the "Weser-Kurier". Bremen has no 600,000 inhabitants, the state election is held in the shadow of the European elections on the same Sunday. Still has that 26. May be a dwarf state to finish the stuff, the Era of Angela Merkel abruptly. Bremen, since the beginning of SPD. A defeat in their last stronghold, could trigger the Federal level, the chain reaction, the blow to the increasingly fragile coalition.

How is the situation in the SPD?

You do not need to determine these days of not-too-deep listening in the SPD as the CDU, to The scenario, all Relevant in the government district. The fractures in the structure are not to be overlooked. In the SPD, to dismantle the Former party leader Andrea Nahles on the open stage: former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder to anticipate, more and more clearly the Ex-Chairman, Sigmar Gabriel. In the "mirror" is Gabriel a "feel" for the record that the coalition agreement is not focused on "challenges of tomorrow". The SPD would have to occur for the modernisation of the economy, state and social security. If the Union don't play along, "you must go".

Formally, the aims at the end of the year and the black-red coalition agreement enshrined a "revision clause" for the mid-term. But in the SPD as in the Union register all the attention, how rapidly Nahles’ Position of the own people is shaken. "And no one jumps you," says a Christian Democrat with a shrug.

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to order on The contrary, Gabriel cut the line right in front of a SPD party meeting in the foreground, at the Nahles, a package full of social-democratic soul warmer to submit projects. The insurance that he is "not thinking" about new Offices for themselves, believes the Ex-party chief in the SPD anyway, no one in the Union, no one.

what is the relationship of the SPD to the Union?

Within the government structure to govern games also suspicion and Profiling. Because of the taunts of the Finance Minister, Olaf Scholz are against the coalition partner, the social Democrat, applies the Mantra of "black Zero" in times in which taxes not to gush so profusely, more recently, with preference to the budgets of the CDU colleagues like defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen. Because of the uncertainty, also in the case of Merkel is, how sustainable collusion with the SPD Manager or the Vice-Chancellor.

And there is the "respect-pension". What looked at first glance like the implementation of a coalition project – people after a long working life, the pension is on the increase – is proving to be a challenge. Because the Minister of labour Hubertus Heil wants to do without, unlike in the coalition agreement expressly agreed on a means test.

During this period, a social wing of the concept and even support. Others in the Union, employing, however, is less the Details than the tactical motive behind salvation's advance against the Agreed. "He wants to distinguish themselves social-democratic" asks a Christian Democrat, "or is it the divorce letter?"

The divorce letter – reminiscent of the legendary "Lambsdorff paper". In 1982 by the then Minister of economic Affairs Otto Graf Lambsdorff written, delivered it to the FDP, the justification for the change of partner from Helmut Schmidt to Helmut Kohl. The theses of the "market count" were themselves for the economic near-SPD-Chancellor of a provocation.

salvation is the thrust concealed, but could have the same effect. And he is just meant to be. The "respect-pension" could be the sticking point, "but", says a leading social Democrat. But this presupposes that the Union is peaceable. Because it was clear that something like the case Maaßen should not repeat.

The cabal to the protection of the Constitution boss is in the SPD as original sin: the First requirement is a massive, buckling and in the withdrawal of the case trick to be overlooked – what happened Nahles at the time, wants to repeat the healing.

a battle lineup is: Ends of the choice Sunday in may for the SPD's catastrophic, it could make the project of the lower Saxony healing to the formal break point. That would at least get the impression that it leaves with its head held high out of the Federal government with Merkel and not only from fear of insignificance.

How the CDU and the CSU to assess the situation?

the Union would be a withdrawal of the SPD, many quite right. Because even in the CDU – less of the CSU – think about the way out of the coalition. The newly elected CDU-enough-Boss Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the Flair of the New. The Saar countries using it systematically. She's receptions, the attraction of the major party CDU in the new year. During the inaugural visit in Brussels all want to see the woman that has a good chance to be the next Chancellor. The "shop talk" to the refugee policy together with the CSU on the weekend to quickly discard the old Ballast.

But for too long the appeal of the New holds. The supporters of their defeated rivals to the CDU Chairman Friedrich Merz, expect Kramp-Karrenbauer, that they, with the coalition Committee as a lever more "CDU pur". An old party Bunny noted concern that rising poll numbers in Bremen, in Brandenburg, in the Federal – in the Union group, again, to compromise, unwilling to fight a "We may anyway have led none of what"Pose.

But Merkel knows that the Moment can quickly come when you must make your request, the successor to out of the way. This is not easy. The basic law condemns acting Chancellor, literally, to stay until the election of a successor to the Post. The method of Schröder, a purposely lost vote of Confidence, is likely to fail as a result of Federal President of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

new elections are Coming soon?

Only a real vote of confidence in a Constitution would be new elections, clean way. Inevitably, not on the other. Kramp-Karrenbauer also could try to revive Jamaica. FDP-Chef Christian Lindner, would be easy to get; a second cancellation, he can't afford. For the Greens, the question is more complicated: As the smallest of the three partners to join the government – or equal-to test how far the 20-percent-polls in elections?

More about

survey on citizenship, elections in 2019, the CDU in Bremen just ahead of the SPD

But first, the Grand coalition must fail me, really. In the Union, many hope the SPD. If you withdraw yourself, to fear, stability-loving voters to be punished. On the other hand, – Kramp-Karrenbauer has already shown once that she is not afraid of this risk. In the Saar they threw in 2012, the FDP annoyed from a "Jamaica coalition" and asked SPD-land-in-chief Heiko Maas to the Grand coalition. Merkel was on the phone. The party boss was taken the crash course. Their present successor is not.

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