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Government coalition : Engages Kramp-Karrenbauer prematurely after the Chancellery?

If Kevin Kühnert and Alexander Mitsch dominate a political debate, is actually a sure sign of a storm in a glass of Water. The Juso-in-chief and the Chairman of the values of Union in their parties Extreme. Kühnert wants to see an extra-parliamentary SPD on the left of course, Mitch and his small troop of ultra-conservative form of the right side of the CDU. The other doesn't like Angela Merkel. Mitsch wants to see the Chancellor, if possible, on the spot by the CDU-Chairman, Annegret Kramp-karrenbauer replaced. Kühnert, however, has suddenly discovered its love of the Status quo: Merkel before the start of the time – no, thank you!

That sounds like a late carnival joke, however, lies a serious core to it. The waves in the water glass marked with the nervous state in which the coalition a year after the Start of their government. On Thursday, Merkel's fourth election of the Chancellor, marks the anniversary in the Bundestag. However, since her abandonment of the CDU presidency is considered by many as a foregone conclusion is no longer made, it remains up to the regular end of their term of office in 2021 in the Chancellery.

How to Annegret Kramp acts-Karrenbauer?

Since the new party leader, Kramp-Karrenbauer strikes in a weekly cycle of new sounds in the CDU, many ask, whether the Saar countries prepared for a quick change. From the "shop talk" to refugee policy to the Europe-principle article on the weekend – Kramp-Karrenbauer occupied in a systematic and high-speed topics, which were previously the domain of the Chancellor.

The New justifies their actions with the coming election fight, and the stronger role that she has promised the party in the race for the presidency. In the case of the differences between Merkel's policies and positions are in fact often much lower, than from the interested page is read. The "asylum turnaround", for example, the Conservative parties, has already taken place before.

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AKK strikes a different tone, free of Merkel's old Fight. She goes to CSU and Conservative so be open as to the economic wing. The goal has been formulated early on: to make for years, hopelessly divided Union re-United and campaign able. It's serious elections – Europe, Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony.

But the suspicion remains that Kramp-Karrenbauer prepared at the same time, your chancellorship. Even in the Union, it is not just Merkel-hater, in favour of a rapid change of power. The followers of the new Boss, how long you can wait without getting in the politics of everyday life wear off. And of course it would be for the Union, ideal to move in with a new Chancellor and Amtsbonus in the next election.

How a power might look like?

The Problem is: it's not So simple with the exchange. It is, on the contrary, quite difficult. The basic law allows for the dissolution of the Bundestag and new elections only as a last resort – a response to the bad experiences of the Weimar Republic.

Actually, the Constitution does not allow for the Chancellor's resignation. Are only two ways to fill in the middle of a parliamentary term, the Chancellor's office re: The constructive vote of no confidence and the vote of Confidence. The most important difference between the two lies in the right of initiative: The vote of confidence requested by the Parliament, the question of Confidence of the Chancellor presents himself to his supporters.

For the vote of confidence it needs, however, therefore "constructive" – a Chancellor's majority for a candidate. So to avoid that Unhappy blow up the government without an Alternative.

The question of Trust, in turn, is meant to be the sharpest Instrument of the Chancellor, to force mutinous troops to obedience. However, Brandt and Kohl discovered that a rat run for re-election opened: to lose as the "fake" question of Confidence in the intention of you. Recently, Gerhard Schröder, took advantage of the Trick.

The catch is, once again, that the Federal President has to play. Only if Parliament elects, by a "Chancellor majority" in a New, or a New, must appoint the head of state him. After lost vote of Confidence, the Federal President, elections can begin – but it must not, but can oblige the Losing simply more service. And thus emphasized on the state - and Constitution-oriented law, such as Frank-Walter Steinmeier has behavior after the elections, no one likes the fact that the could be a fake vote of confidence.

In this narrow constitutional rules for a targeted change of staff in the Chancellery hardly any space. Only this explains why the SPD - which people strive from the second row, just loudly, Kramp-Karrenbauer one of the few legal ways zuzusperren. The would be so that Merkel declared, tired of office, and the existing coalition, the CDU leader selects a new Chancellor, so to speak, a constructive vote of no confidence without mistrust.

Overly realistic, it was never without one as the SPD-man-John Kahrs for the case of "Amok" is threatening that the Union would lead to this Situation. After all, why the social Democrats of the competition should provide the starting advantage for the next election to volunteer? Of course, there is cross by the Bundestag quite strategists, the question of whether the SPD could really say no. In the survey, elections to 17 per cent in terms of purchasing might be the greater risk.

The second regular opportunity to apply in advance to the office, could result in a vote of no confidence without suspicion – only this time with new partners. Helmut Kohl has presented the model in 1982, when the FDP decided to change of partner of Helmut Schmidt's SPD to the CDU/CSU. Theoretically, more units might be available, new. And when you hear and read, such as Christian Lindner, the insured, more recently, again on a daily basis in some Interview that he would be with his FDP this time for the Govern ready, could easily come to the idea of Jamaica II to stand directly in front of the door.

Only it takes three. And the Green back only at the last time something at a distance to the CDU, because you can't like programmatically how Kramp-Karrenbauer is committed to conservative parts of the Union. Otherwise, a flying change of government from your point of view, appears little attractive. Her poll numbers are twice as high as your to 8.9 percent-the result of the election in 2017. In Jamaica-Federal they were still only third parties – the FDP, came two years ago to 9.2 percent. The Vice-Chancellor would be Lindner, and not Robert Habeck.

Would be new elections a possibility?

With each day, the time in which a new government at all policy making is shrinking. Even if negotiations remained short, and a new Cabinet would soon be in office, there would have been little more than a year and a half until the next Federal election in the fall of 2021 casts its shadow ahead.

Then, so I'd rather have new elections. Just – how come? A break-up of the coalition would be from today's perspective, probably the only way. Trigger, both partners could be him. The SPD's bad election results, the return threatening in the coming months, support for party leader Andrea Nahles as for Vice-Chancellor Olaf Scholz is a thin – hardly a social Democrat dares in this situation, short-circuit reactions, or coup, to exclude attempts. The Review of the coalition agreement, the social Democrats, the end of the year, can be to break. The Union could, in turn, try to strain the partnership, through compromise, or own counter-claims in such a way that you or the social Democrats to throw the boulders.

of Course, both have a Problem: Who is to blow the Alliance to be malicious, you must expect to see the voters punish him. SPD-moves such as the basic pension plans, Minister of labour, Mr Hubertus Heil and the CDU-pur-messages Kramp cart Builder, you can against this Background, as Attempts to read, to have a break plausible.

the in fact, would be the path to re-election shortly. Merkel would lead as Chancellor without a majority for the Transition of a minority government. When the ends, is then in your Hand you could at any time lose a "real" question of Confidence. And that would allow Steinmeier with all the state legal decency, to dissolve the Parliament.

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On Monday night, Annegret Kramp-karrenbauer came to the speculation. “I see at the Moment, neither the CDU nor the SPD-relevant votes which deal with this topic seriously,” said the CDU Chief for Reuters TV. “And rightly so. Because we have a Chancellor. And we want to – and I want to be at the top – is that Angela Merkel remains Chancellor.” Especially since the division of labor has been between Merkel and Kramp-karrenbauer without great frictions. If you like the game of the Chancellor and the home of in addition to Chancellor, clever – who knows, maybe the model holds even up to and including 2021.

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