Ewa Stenberg: Four explanations for KD's success

1.

the Conservatives credibility problem is a backdrop behind Their exceptional success in the polls. ”Many times has it been the Conservatives themselves who have shot themselves in the foot.”, describing the Conservatives own election assessment statement of the basis for the electorate's uncertainty about whether it really is possible to rely on M. In today's DN/Ipsos is the Conservatives four percentage points in the election results valanalysen describes as a failure.

Ulf Kristerssons party has not been able to take out a new course since first Decemberöverenskommelsen and then the Alliance cracked. The M still lacks a credible strategy to be able to reign. Ebba Busch Thor's christian democrats have had the same problem, but is more effective and shows that the party would take power and enforce its policies. Busch Thor dare it that the Conservatives do not dare to out of fear that their liberal voters would choose the Centre party or the Liberals instead. She sounded after the weak resistance of his party to throw Decemberöverenskommelsen overboard, she went early out and said that the christian democrats want to unseat the government, Löfven and now she says she can think of to make it up with SD in the various issues. It remains to explain how a M+KD-government should be able to get support for a budget, but the Christian democrats, unlike the Conservatives as a party with sharp teeth, who want to implement their policies. It's like the voters on the right.

2.

Ebba Busch Thor is an important explanation for Their success in the elections and rise in public opinion. She is straight, engaged, and enthusiastic. Busch Thor has effectively förtagit the image of a party with a hidden agenda to force the return of women to the stove, criticism that her predecessor Alf Svensson and Göran Hägglund often had to contend with. Ebba Busch Thor is trying to give a modern answer from the right side of the feminist movement. She appears more and more frequently in social and traditional media, while the Moderates and Ulf Kristersson get less publicity. It showed Mediemätaren that Sifo doing the Echo.

3. the Care and care for the elderly has made a comeback of profile questions for the Christian democrats. Sakpolitiken is important for voters when they stand in the voting booth, the credibility of the voters ' key issues is the foundation for long-term success. Health care is voters ' most important issue, and Ebba Busch Thor rarely miss an opportunity to talk about waiting lists.

4. the Zeitgeist fits the Christian democrats. Today's public debate is often about culture and identity, ethics and morality, which is the party's backyard. It is a högervåg in voter research, which favours the christian democrats, a party that has gone to the right during the Ebba Busch Thor's direction.

the Christian democrats have a strong involvement in issues perceived as more left, for example, for a large aid, assistance to refugees and family reunification. But the side of the policy reflected more on the party's national conference of the party and kommunkonferenser than in partiledardebatterna. Ebba Busch Thor is in a positive spiral and see what issues that raises. She is the offensive and behaving like a leader of the opposition. It can be dangerous for the Conservatives Ulf Kristersson, because he is a step behind.