Erik de la Reguera: the EU is trying to avoid being blamed for a hard Brexit

– Therefore, to Theresa Mays conservative government has still not managed to get support in parliament for the skilsmässoavtal as it negotiated with the EU. The agreement has already been refused on two occasions in the british house of commons – and in the last week, parliament May in the task to apply for a delay of exit.

– the Bank of England, and many independent economists have warned that a avtalslös Brexit on 29 march would hit the Uk economy. Without a delay of the exit, however, is such a ”hard” Brexit what to expect.

It had been speculated that the united kingdom would apply if a delay in two steps – first to 30 June, with a possible further extension up to the year 2021. But in the british house of commons said Theresa May that she does not want any longer delay than until 30 June, because the british then most likely would need to participate in the EU elections at the end of may (some confusion exists about this, EUROPEAN commission president Jean-Claude Juncker has previously stated that on 23 may would be the last day for the british to leave, if they want to avoid to participate in the elections).

– most Likely, the choice of the date is a compromise, and a concession to the brexitörfalangen in the ruling party, the Tories. Brexitörerna is deeply sceptical about the idea of a longer delay. Despite the fact that May now only apply for a three-month delay was accused her on Wednesday of which is large Peter Bone as ”a treason against the british people”.

– It is not at all obvious that it will be a yes on the summit held on Thursday. Many EU-countries want to avoid a avtalslös Brexit, since such would probably hit hard even against the union's economy. But France has begun to grow weary of the shilly-shallying and requires a change in strategy from Theresa Mays page in order to approve a delay.

In the letter, which May now sent to the president of the European council, Donald Tusk is not much to the new strategy. May blame the delay on the president in the house of commons John Bercow, who on Monday said he will not allow a third vote on the agreement, so long as it is not changed in any way. The prime minister seems to believe that she in spite of this can get to a third vote in the next week, and that the contract will be approved. The question is whether the EU leaders buy this.

– In practice, it sounds as if Tusk and other EU leaders are now trying to avoid getting the blame for the non-contractual, ”hard” Brexit approaching with leaps and bounds. If the EU were to say flatly no to a delayed Brexit, it may look as if the EU kicks out the british next Friday. Now the balls, instead of back to the parliament at Westminster, with the message: ”it is up to you, britons – do you agree with the agreement, we will arrange an extension” (which then would primarily involve a technical extension, while the british decision is implemented).

– the Clock is ticking ever closer to the march 29, and the risk is becoming larger and larger that we will not get clarity of what to expect for the Uk until next week – might take it as long as the check on the actual utträdesdagen.