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Erik de la Reguera: may Not be enough

Not a syllable has been changed in the disputed skilsmässoavtalet, but the Uk and the EU has at the last moment agreed on a few legally binding additional documents that are supposed to sort out some ambiguities. In the first place is it of the disputed reservlösningen (”backstop”) for the border in Ireland.

The hard-line ”brexitörerna” in Mays party of the Tories and samarbetspartiet DUP have wanted to scrap the reservlösningen completely. But it refuses the EU – and in particular the Irish government – because of fears that the conflict in northern Ireland to flare up again.

Now available brexitörerna in place a special mechanism for the settlement of disputes, which, according to the british government ”reduces the risk to the united kingdom for an indefinite period of time would be fånget in reservlösningen”.

in Addition, the EU and the british in a common commitment to seek technological solutions that can secure an open border in Ireland. Last but not least, the british government intended to make a unilateral statement stating that it considers itself have the right to leave reservlösningen if it is not, in the end, go find some workable solutions at all.

No, it is not sure that it is enough. As of this writing clock (a night to Tuesday) do not have any detailed documents tabled, and members will get very little time to analyze them before Tuesday's vote. Demands are already being made on a delay of the vote, and some members can probably get the feeling that the government is trying to ”manufactured” through the agreement.

A key question will be how the attorney-general Geoffrey Cox's reaction to the changes. Cox is expected to make a opinion on Tuesday, and if he is sticking to his previous line – that there is a risk that the Uk is stuck in a perpetual fallback – when is Mays agreement is likely doomed.

the Government describes it as a new ”meaningful vote” on the skilsmässoavtalet with the EU. In practice, it is now up to five documents to be voted on: skilsmässoavtalet, the political declaration on the future of the relationship, the addition of the mechanism for the solutions of the disputes, the declaration on the joint search for technological solutions in Irlandsfrågan, and finally: the british unilateral declaration.

If this package should be able to go through and the brits to finally get an orderly way to wander out of the EU, then Theresa May probably also attract some members from the Labour party – for it is already clear that some liberal, pro-EU Tories are voting no. Can she succeed with it? Maybe. Sensitive vote is likely to be a shocker.

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