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Erik de la Reguera: Brexit – five things that can happen now

rather than stand firm on what she said last week, that a Brexit must now be delayed considerably, or have Theresa May requested to postpone the EU-exit with just three months.

In his speech to the nation, she said:

" I am not prepared to delay the Brexit longer than to 30 June. For it would mean that I have to ask you to vote in the EU elections, nearly three years after our country decided to leave the union.

Mays aversion. But her decision is at variance with what she said recently, and can be a strategic mistake of huge proportions.

the Answer from the president of the European council Donald Tusk became: ”A short delay is possible, but only if the british house of commons vote first yes to skilsmässoavtalet”.

In practice, this means that the EU tries to kick the ball back to the british parliament, as in the next week, thus can be faced with the choice between Mays agreements and a avtalslös Brexit march 29.

in May, it is a minor disaster. The radical brexitörer who this week has been on the road to vekna – because they were worried that a long delay – cheering namely, in this now. Brexitörerna see a avtalslös Brexit that much better than Mays agreements.

the Question is whether or not the prime minister just lost the ability to build a majority for their agreement.

With just nine days to go until the 29 march, however, everything is still possible. The following five scenarios are possible:

At 23 local time the next Friday will the british leave the EU. Despite the fact that the parliament said no to a disorderly, avtalslös Brexit is it still a purely legal what to expect when. In practice, we would initially have major interference in the ports and other traffic, and the economic consequences become very serious, at least according to most economists.

If parliament finally vote yes to Mays agreements, the EU would give the british a shorter extension in order to be able to be implemented before Brexit is reached. Then begins a near-two-year-long transitional period, during which negotiations on the future of the relationship.

the British have the right to stop EU exit on their own, by withdrawing the activation of article 50. But the prime minister, which makes it commit likely political suicide.

The members want to see a new referendum in the hope that a majority in parliament to see this as a resort in the last minute. Even those members who want to have a ”softer” Brexit, maybe something in the style of Norway's relationship to the union, hoping to get increased support. The EU would most likely go along with a delayed exit, if any of these options to get the support of a majority.

If Theresa May did not get to review their contract, she can choose to resign and call an early presidential election. The EU would be able to go on a delay of the exit, in the hope that a new government with a clearer majority in parliament to be able to get through an agreement.

however, the Truth is that no one in Westminster is sure what to expect. Next week looks to be of historical importance for the Uk.

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