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Erik Ohlsson: Last the rest of the caliphate conquered – but ICE is still a threat

On July 4, 2014 appeared ICE allerhögste leader Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi of al-Nurimoskén in Mosul, Iraq's second largest city. In connection with the Friday prayer, he spoke to all the world's muslims, and called on them to obey him. al-Bagdadi pointed out that he from now on would be called ”caliph Ibrahim”.

This was the IS leader's finest moment. The boksynte 43-year-old stood in the forefront of a Gudsstat which covered more than 40 percent of Syria, and more than a third of Iraq, a total of nearly 270.000 square kilometers. Terrorsekten controlled city of Mosul in Iraq, the provincial capital of Raqqa in Syria and virtually all of the syrian oil fields in the country's northwestern part.

with the blitzkrieg and ultravåld had been unprecedentedly successful. The group's hard core, forged big plans in the coordinated terrorist attacks in Europe.

today is ”caliphate” in the ruins. The last paragraph is land which IS held, society Baghouz at the syrian-iraqi border, was captured by the syriskkurdiska forces on Saturday.

The only thing Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi got to keep is the end. ICE-caliph has been transformed from a horrific oppressors to Johan without land.

territory , its självutropade ”caliphate”, should not be underestimated. The movement has no longer any obvious base where converts from all over the world can travel to join the jihad. They have no natural protected zone from where attacks can be planned.

the Actual legitimacy of an ”islamic state” has disappeared, and that the countries in the world would relate to the ICE as a state-building now seems to be ridiculous.

But. Before segerjublet gets too loud it is necessary to recall some circumstances.

" means an unimaginably high price. Partly in money calculated – by the US-led bombkampanjen has cost corresponding to sek 100 million per day, since it started in 2014.

and in the form of reconstruction: to chase away, IS considered the united states-the coalition be forced to bomb the crumbling cities of Mosul and Raqqa. The restoration of the cities is slow.

It has been almost two years ago, Mosul was liberated from IS terrorists, but large parts of the city is still in ruins - it is estimated to take ten years before it is rebuilt, reported a team from the tv channel al-Jazira in the last week.

in reconstruction feeds popular discontent from which IS a time found their nourishment. It sunniextremistiska ICE and its sympathisers are not late to play on ethnic tensions, and it is not always they are out in the park weather.

Both the in Iraq, with shiamuslimskt dominated the government, and in Syria, where the alawites control the state apparatus, there has been a tendency to discriminate against sunnibefolkningen.

the UN recently retiring Syrienmedlare Staffan de Mistura stressed that the syrian peace process must mean that the sunni groups are included. de Mistura was the deputy UN envoy in Iraq in the years 2005-2006, when the sunniextremistiska terrorist organisations al-Qaeda was defeated.

what happened then in Iraq, he points out, was that the iraqi shiadominerade the government did not bother to include sunnibefolkningen. ”The risk is that the same pattern is repeated in Syria unless a political solution that includes all the groups are implemented”, said de Mistura when I interviewed him in the autumn of 2018.

thus far, There have been no signs that Syrian president Bashar al-Assad to implement a separation of powers. Something that does not bode well for the future.

In particular, which IS – according to a recent UN report – yet can have as many as 18 000 remaining members in Syria and in Iraq.

this will terrorsekten gained a foothold in many other parts of the world – in Egypt, on the Sinai peninsula, in Libya, in Afghanistan and in the Philippines.

Read more: IS the last stronghold of reported intake – very few terrorists left in the tunnels

Read more: The last remains of the IS ”caliphate” is expected to fall

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