Erik Esbjörnsson: Three questions about the situation in Sudan

Tens of thousands of people have gathered outside the arméhögkvarteret, which is located next to the presidential palace, in the capital Khartoum where they are agog that president Omar al-Bashir's resignation should be notified. Rumors have surrat throughout the Thursday morning that the president of the republic shall have agreed to step aside and the army have said that they soon will make a statement on the radio.

He is a 75-year-old former colonel, who in 1989 took over power in a military coup d'état without the element of violence. Since then he has steered the vastness of the Sudan with an iron fist. Al-Bashir became world famous in the 1990s when he was terrorist Osama bin Laden and is wanted by the international criminal court (ICC) in the Hague for crimes committed by security forces in the province of Darfur in the early 2000's. A connection to Sweden is his role during the country's civil war in the 1990s, in the current south Sudan, which is currently examined in the high-profile Lundin Oil company-the prosecution.

Everything is pointing towards that this is the case. From Khartoum, reports that only militärmarscher be played on the radio, which may be seen as a classic indicator that something is in the offing. But the big question is whether it is the military or the al-Bashir who is trying to win time and what type of ongoing negotiations. Omar al-Bashir is a highly skilled strategist and tactician, and has several times before, promised changes, but to then live up to their promises. Therefore, it is essential to not shout hello until the stream crossed (or more fitting: the mighty Nile river, whose two main branches flow together around the corner from the presidential palace).