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Employment forecasts are consistently darker than the actual figures – we're happy in the wrong, said the forecast factor

the Official economic and employment forecasts often seem to be a lighter shade of dark tasks. This happened today, when the ministry of employment and economy (TEM) released a slight pessimism bend forecast for the year 2020-2021.

the Forecasts are, however, consistently more negative than later reveal the actual figures, it becomes clear Yle size from small sample sizes. The sample has been reviewed TEM years 2015-2019 autumn labour market forecasts (switch to another service).

first, let's review the unemployment rate:

TEM, data acquisition: Janne Toivonen / Yle, graphics: Harri little fabric / Yle

the MINISTRY's forecasts are consistently synkistelty the future. Underperform predicted to hit in 2016 and best more the following year. The average error is half a percentage point.

the Same trend is visible in the kingdom perhaps this moment following the most successful individual in the chapter, i.e. the employment rate in:

TEM, data acquisition: Janne Toivonen / Yle, graphics: Harri little fabric / Yle

In 2018 read threw most – quite a lot – and in 2016 the least.

In 2019, the figures in the previous forecast published in autumn 2018 is more positive than today announced a fresh forecast. This is a sample chapter from the only one with the original prediction seems to have been the real development of brighter.

let's See the predictions of the unemployed job seekers from:

TEM, data acquisition: Janne Toivonen / Yle, graphics: Harri little fabric / Yle

paragraph, in the amount of the big throws come in 2017, with the number of unemployed to throw more than 30 000. Last year the projected figure was instead quite close to reality.

Forecast factor: We are not deliberately alarmist

Whether the prediction of an undercurrent of a priori pessimistic? Interpretation is TEM development rather a bit on the low side, so should have created false optimism?

We don't think so, the fight against TEM:n consult the official Johanna Alatalo .

He has been for several years involved in the preparation of forecasts in the group, and so this time too. What does she think is the hit accuracy?

in – Between is shot better and sometimes worse. Very rarely forecast falls perfectly into place. It is not a science, but the current best estimate, Alatalo said.

at the Bottom is used for the mathematical calculation model, which is alatalo, according to the "quite simple".

But.

the economic growth, however, goes only rarely completely according to the forecast, and in addition, the result of the confounding twists and turns for example policy and the global economy. They try to take into account in the forecast, but only if the decisions have already been made and their consequences can be reliably assessed.

Typically, policy changes are not included in the projections.

And not even a cough was beating in the exact same pace as the overall economy. This explains the big roll in 2018, the employment rate in the figures.

– In 2018 was a good example of an exceptional year. The development of employment was much better than what might have been expected gdp developments. It was ferocious it employment growth.

"we're happy in the wrong"

labour market forecasting was always a three-man team including on the job – one in spring and one in autumn. This case has been used in all fairness only the autumn forecasts – late autumn, view of next year is more accurate than even in the spring.

Fresh forecast promises to once again darken the functions of the figures for next year and the year 2021. Unemployment should not increase and the number of employed persons declined, but positive trend threatens to wane.

Or threatening?

we're happy to wrong. Let's hope that the year 2021, the development is better than these figures.

"I Saw TEM forecast" is always the previous autumn forecast (eg. autumn 2015 estimate 2016 reading). "This happened" is next year's autumn number (eg. fall 2017 for the year 2016 of the reading). In 2019, the figures of the first is the year 2018, the autumn forecast and the second autumn 2019 forecast.

Read more:

TEM:no grim labour market forecast is for a cold shower the government's employment objectives

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