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Electoral gains for the Greens : the Greens it can quickly go downhill again

polls suggest the elections in Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony to massive gains for Green and AfD. Mr Holtmann, can be the parties in your case for sure?
We are talking of surveys, which are always of the political, economic and social developments. With all the caution signs of a sustained shift in the party system. The successes of the AfD are not a flash in the pan, and also the rise of the Greens can be structurally justified.

How?

We see a pan-German phenomenon, shows how much East and West have grown together. The Green benefit from the usual opposition parties-Bonus. The topics at the end of 2018, such as climate change or diesel driving bans were for the party, but also convenient. You may also evaluate the human factor in the party's top not to small.

the Green with the realists Habeck and Baerbock Are become more conservative?

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in order to become established. The Image of the protest party was abraded. Because it is involved in the seven country governments. In the best sense, the Greens have long been part of the political Establishment.

What is the impact on the Federal policies you expect from the parliamentary elections?

In our Multi-level construct of the Federal Republic of Germany state elections always have a reciprocal effect on the Federal policy. The best example is the Saarland-election in 2017, the Federal election influenced five months later, massive was. In Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony, more than half of East Germans are entitled to vote. This will provide information on the condition of the party system.

Everhard Holtmann, research Director of the centre for social research Halle (ZSH).Photo: Martin Schutt/dpa

parties are rooted in the East a little. What are the implications?

The choice behavior in the East is more unpredictable than in the West. Since the turn of an institutional corset is missing. The numbers of members in churches, trade unions, business associations and political parties have been since 1990, always significantly lower than in the Rest of the Republic. In addition, the number of member decreased in the past 30 years, significant stronger than in the West. The party loyalty is so weak, the volatility of the choice decision.

the Green Will benefit from it?

The sympathy will clear values only passes, if you create a wide range. I have confidence in you in all three state elections, two-digit results. The mood in the country should change but, it can go for the Green, but also fast on the downhill again.

More about

state elections in 2019, the green "upswing East"?

Cordula Eubel Felix Hackenbruch

Everhard Holtmann (72) party researcher and Professor Emeritus of political science at the University of Halle-Wittstock. There he also heads the centre for social research.

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