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Britain to leave the EU : A disorderly Leaving is now significantly more likely

The British Parliament voted on Tuesday evening for the first Time for something. A good sign? This is more of a bad sign. The deputies of the lower house ha

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Britain to leave the EU : A disorderly Leaving is now significantly more likely

The British Parliament voted on Tuesday evening for the first Time for something. A good sign?

This is more of a bad sign. The deputies of the lower house have voted in favour of a motion, you know, to negotiate that the other 27 countries of the EU are not ready. This means that you have opened on the table, to a complete solution - without saying how new solutions should look like. And you have the right to vote at the end to continue, however, if you don't like what Theresa May from Brussels.

does this Mean that the deputies have pressed the Prime Minister even more in the corner?

Yes, you must say so. You could also see it cynically as an attempt to shift the responsibility for a disordered Brexit to Brussels. It was clear to all that the EU institutions are not willing to negotiate the Backstop again.

Why not? There are different ideas on how the emergency-solution for Northern Ireland and adapted can be modified...

To ideas it is not the end. The Backstop engages only when there is a trade agreement between the EU and Northern Ireland until the end of 2020 - renewable by 2022 - a new free. The majority of the conservative members it is the fact that you reject it is, in principle, that the Backstop a paves way to a kind of connection of the UK to the EU. The best way to show the former foreign Minister, Boris Johnson, has called for a "freedom clause", in which Britain unilaterally solve - in his Jargon – "of all the shackles of the EU".

And what that means from your point of view?

This shows that guys like Johnson really want the hard break with the EU. Before the vote two weeks ago, the EU has told Commission that it has no interest, that the Backstop clause, is eternal, and that it is best never to apply. Nevertheless, the British Parliament has rejected the agreement. In Brussels, you have seen the deal as a sign that the British MPs to reject the agreement.

The political scientist Nicolai von Ondarza directs the research group "EU/Europe" of the Foundation for science and politics.Photo: Private

a conversation in the middle of January, you have said to us, Theresa may's "Plan B" was not very promising. Has changed after last night?

Exactly: We have seen that Theresa May has tried to lead cross-party talks. She stopped after a few Try again, and all of the other Alternatives, a cancellation issued.

What Alternatives would they be?

The all the other options that are not disordered Brexit: So an extension of article 50, and thus a displacement of the exit date; a softer Brexit for example in the Form of a customs Union, in order to make the Backstop void;new elections or a new Referendum.

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If Theresa May moves according to the will of the Parliament, now back to Brussels – she has a real Chance to reach the renegotiations something?

The reactions that came in the night from Brussels, are clearly. And the Rejections don't come only from the EU institutions, but also by all 27 member States. That is to say, not only to Chancellor Merkel, but also Viktor Orbán in Hungary or Mateusz Morawiecki in Poland - they are all behind Ireland and are not willing to negotiate the exit agreement. I do not expect, therefore, that it May with great negotiation to be done back to London. And then we will see what you submit. And if it still comes to one of the Alternatives.

And how to do it now?

One of the best Brexit-a connoisseur, the former Ambassador to the EU, Ivan Rogers, has said the other day in Brussels: Anyone who submits now forecasts, is a charlatan. My assessment is that with the decisions yesterday, the likelihood of a disorderly Brexit has considerably increased.

More about

the United Kingdom, "A second Referendum would be the best way"


political scientist Dr. Nicolai von Ondarza is leading the research group "EU/Europe" at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und politik (SWP).

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