What is your prediction for the motion of censure tonight against Theresa May?
I agree with the prevailing opinion, that May be able to survive the confidence vote. The Tories and the Northern Irish DUP, they are support. At least within the Tories, no-one wants to play in the current situation, may's Position.
Should the Prime Minister back?
Whether you May withdraw should, I can't answer. But you will probably not come back. Their behavior during the Brexit negotiations was not politically determined ideal. But May had to negotiate a very complicated Position. That the negotiations achieved make results at home, all satisfied, is, therefore, hardly surprising.
How can it go on now?
The clear no on Tuesday evening has made it clear that it would not be sufficient to the British Parliament, if May tried in Brussels to discuss the Details of the exit agreement to negotiate. A new approach must be found. Maybe there are new elections, or a second Referendum. Personally, I think this is also another scenario possible: An extension of the deadline referred to in article 50 of the EU Treaty, the withdrawal agreement is also an agreement on the future relations between the EU and the UK to negotiate. Should this succeed – which is not at all foreseeable – could the UK directly, in a sense – without a transition phase and a Backstop from the Status of EU membership to the Status of a contractual partnership with the EU change. A hard Brexit would be averted, and a Backstop to prevent a hard Irish-Northern Irish border would not be necessary.
Why the UK should propose such negotiations?
The British Parliament has rejected the withdrawal agreement, among other things, due to the Backstops, so the extension of the customs Union of Northern Ireland, in the case that no other solution is found by means of negotiation. By the extension of the period referred to in article 50 and the agreement on a Treaty on future relations with a Backstop would no longer be required.
And why the EU should go for it?
I believe that the EU could engage in the above outlined scenario, if it is the only way to prevent a hard Brexit. After yesterday's vote a tough Brexit now threatens, as it will be without any exit agreement no Backstop.
Would that be after the outlet of article 50?
article 50 does not preclude, in my view at least, that, in addition to a discharge of contract a contract about the future relationship is negotiated, even if the ratification of the two treaties could only be done one after the other.
Why you have not done this before?
The negotiation must have had tactical reasons on the part of the EU.
How an extension could look like?
I think it would run on a concrete extension of the time limit, such as twelve or 18 months with Option of further extension, if the negotiations can not be completed at this time.
Then the UK would be in the European elections in may EU-member.
Yes, that would be the seats of the British in the EU Parliament have been redistributed quite a mess, because already. But the question is: What kind of mess do we prefer? A couple of chairs in the EU Parliament move or a hard Brexit at the end of March?More about
news blog to Brexit May: "No elections, no second Referendum"Kai Portmann John Laub Meier Ruth Ciesinger Nantke Garrelts
- Urs Pötzsch research fellow at the centre for European policy in Freiburg, Germany