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Brexit : The British Dilemma: Nothing has a majority

It goes by not a day without from Britain with new proposals to the Brexit to be expressed. So Tony Blair, the former Prime Minister and Labour leader campaigned on a weekend, for a new Referendum. An idea of what the British Prime Minister, Theresa May abschmetterte immediately. In their eyes, the Parliament has a duty to implement what has been required by the population with the vote in June 2016. Namely, the Brexit.

encouraged, a fortiori, to explain the Labour party's election campaign Manager, Andrew Gwynne that his party would like to force before Christmas, a decision by the Parliament. According to Scotland's head of government, Nicola Sturgeon this is not hopeless, because the government May be weak and unstable and their condition is deteriorating daily.

New Referendum as a high-risk gamble

Slightly more nuanced, the European Parliament, Elmar Brok sees the Situation. The German CDU politician is the longest-serving members of the European Parliament and one of the three so-called "Sherpas", which ensure the exchange of information between the Brexit-negotiator, Michel Barnier, and the EU Parliament. In a conversation with the citizens ' forum Europe in Vienna Brok made the core of the problem is clear, with the UK's policy is currently struggling: "There is for nothing a majority", neither for the exit for a Revision of this decision.

Therefore, all options are currently open: The Brexit could go on for a time on the stage, but it can also lead to a relationship end without exit the contract with uncertain consequences. It is also possible to postpone the exit, but this would have an impact on the EU elections at the end of may, a repeated Referendum and even to withdraw a letter of Resignation.

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Brok is self-regarding the outcome of a possible second referendum carefully, he calls it a "Gamble". In the current polls there is a majority for remaining in the EU, from 53 to 55 percent. However, a majority of 56 to 57 percent before the Brexit referendum in June 2016 even detectable – however, the Referendum ended with a ' Yes ' to the outlet. If former non-voters would participate in a repeated Referendum, remains speculation.

games power to determine British policy

The British Dilemma makes itself at several locations and shows that it is basically an "ideological discussion, Yes, almost a religious war", so Brok. Was a Prime example of the Situation in the government is a party. There by means of the confidence vote should be overthrown by the own head of government, with the probable result of the elections, in which only one thing is for sure, namely a highly uncertain output.

is How fragile the whole of the British structure, for Brok but also to the limited possibilities of the lower house and in the mother country of the parliamentary system. There are, for example, in the UK is no Procedure for a referendum. Also, the communication between the government and the Parliament was highly inadequate. And the bottom line is that standing, as Brok, that non-rational Considerations, but "the power games that determine the British policy" and the Conservatives and their allies, the Protestant unionists, but also by the opposition Labour Party are torn.

The German politicians do not conceal the fact that the Brexit means also a damage for Europe. For the UK, is likely to be even greater, he says. So London will have to 45 up to 55 billion euros to Brussels to pay back, important sectors of the economy lose as well as losses in terms of economic growth. Nevertheless, Brok argues for understanding for the tough stance of the EU against a further Softening of the Brexit Treaty. There is also "the interests of the EU to secure and defend". For the British, in the end, participate in the single market, but not want to wear, there is no understanding.

Brexit, the EU-27

promoted Cohesion So much the Act of the United Kingdom with a lot of question marks, has – as the EU Parliament, Elmar Brok – the "Brexit the advantage of this is that we have become aware of how strong we are already at the top". The EU-27 have almost felt "forced cohesion", therefore, closed traded, as would be the case with many other issues attached. However, the example of great Britain would make the game of the opponents of the EU made it clear that "we need to look more to the silent majority and not the noisy edges". The hardliners are in the majority, they only make more noise, so the members of the European Parliament.

in Spite of the long debates in the UK and the European Parliament, would the population continue to be confusion. Concepts such as the "Backstop" seem unclear, he is one of the three Central points of the current dispute. Behind it is a kind of insurance for the peace on the island of Ireland, the avoidance of a hard border between the Catholic Republic of Ireland and Protestant Northern Ireland. The border is 500 kilometers long. What it means to be alone economically, if the barriers are raised, it shows a single figure: 80 percent of the Goods for Northern Ireland via the port of Dublin to the country.

Published by EurActiv.

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