70 years of Nato : Alliance of the Unwilling

Nato is on this Wednesday and Thursday in Washington in the 70's. Anniversary of its founding celebration. Of the deterrent in the Cold war controversial operations in Kosovo and Afghanistan, the military Alliance has been re-invented several times. Among the challenges facing the North Atlantic Pact today, the uncertainty on the geo-strategic ambitions of Russia and the unpredictable course of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Trump introduced the Alliance a massive question

Really hot, Donald Trump has become the Nato never and it is not. In the presidential campaign, he referred to the defense Alliance as "obsolete". "It was developed for the Soviet Union, there are now," he said in April 2016. He distanced himself, just a year later, and only a few months in the office, at a press conference with Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

the US President has Recognized that the threat of a rupture is more effective, as a fraction. In English it's called the Art of its rhetoric of an "intentional ambiguity" ("deliberate ambiguity"). From time to time Trump leaves open the question of whether the obligation to provide assistance shall apply in accordance with article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, always and under all circumstances. To nourish doubts as to his loyalty, allowed him to extensive pressure on the allies to exercise.

trump's skeptical attitude to Nato on reflecting on this has not the ratio of the U.S. Congress to the Alliance: This is the message from Washington, the Alliance to his 70. The anniversary is reached. Stoltenberg is allowed to talk this Wednesday to a joint session of the house of representatives and the Senate. This is one of the highest honor, which will be shown to foreign guests. "The U.S. Congress and the American people," wrote Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the house of representatives, Stoltenberg, to "look forward to your message of friendship and partnership. We work together to strengthen our important Alliance and to create a peaceful future for the whole world.“

The Turkey is as an important Outpost on the border with the Middle East is not a reliable Partner any more

Until the end of the Cold war, the role of Turkey in the Atlantic Alliance was clear. With its geostrategically important location on the Southeast flank of the Alliance, the country was an Outpost of the West. In the West and North of Turkey, the Warsaw Pact countries of Bulgaria and Romania, and the Soviet republics of Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, in the South of the Moscow Partner of Syria. The südtürkische air base Incirlik served especially to the US as an Outpost, from which the USSR could be targeted. For a long time a very strong influence of the pro-Western oriented Turkish military in the Turkish politics helped the Nato.

Since the end of the East-West conflict has changed the relationship between Nato and Turkey. Turkey today sees itself as an independent regional power with special interests. Shortly before the Nato anniversary, there are therefore tensions. Turkey wants to buy Russian anti-missile system S-400, although your Partner's fear in the Alliance that Moscow could spy under the care of this system features a Western fighter jets. The USA have stopped for the time being, the delivery of the new American fighter planes of type F-35 to Ankara.

The protection against the Baltic States doubtful

promise for a number of years to pass through again and again, the Russian military machine in unannounced the Baltic airspace and do not respond to radio contact. Then Nato aircraft to climb, the TRANS-Atlantic Alliance monitored for the three Baltic States air space. After the Russian Intervention in Ukraine, Nato sent also soldiers to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. With both operations, Nato does not want to put a character that you can be the three States in the lurch.

Nevertheless, for the Baltic States cause for concern. To defend Nato partners in Montenegro, could trigger the third world war with this remark, Trump turned nonchalantly to the defence commitment of Nato to the discussion. Whether the Baltic States could rely on in case of an emergency on its European allies, seems questionable. The Nato would actually be willing to risk in the event of an escalation in the Baltic States, a war with Russia? In Germany, a survey showed, already in 2017, every Second, to make the allies assistance.

Add to that an open war of Russia against one of the Baltic States is considered to be relatively unlikely. But what if the scenario fails at the first glance, less clear – such as in Eastern Ukraine, where Russia denies until today, to be a war party? Conceivable Pro-Russian forces, or a shifting of boundaries would be, for example, of foreign-controlled actions. In such a case, more room for interpretation, to support the Balts critical would be those.

The Alliance, and many members of the self-defense neglected

Shortly before his departure, Ben Hodges made a public thoughts on Germany's roads and rails. The ageing transport infrastructure in Europe's most important transit country is, unfortunately, a "bottle neck" for the case that Nato would have to quickly relocate large quantities of the device, Material and soldiers to the East, was the General who commanded to 2017, the US land forces in Europe, a comma. But also in Poland, the Czech Republic or Hungary, crumble bridges, and a lack of rail loading ramps, carrying a 60-ton tank.

The logistics-Disaster is just one of the many sites left behind by the "peace dividend"-optimism after the fall of the Berlin wall. Not only in Germany, armies were optimized for operations in distant crisis areas. Other countries motteten heavy equipment, drove back crew figures and exiles Alliance defense in the Appendix of your white books.

On paper, this has reversed Nato. In the drawers of plans for all cases. A new command in Ulm, Germany to coordinate from 2021, the installation logistics. Quick and fastest response decided are troops. Most recently, the Nato summit in 2018, launched a "Readiness Initiative". By 2020, the Alliance, within 30 days, to seasons of 30 battalions – up to 20,000 soldiers, 30 warships, and 30 Air ready to fight.

But, experts consider that currently, at best, the British are capable of. Already come to France with the "Readiness" hart to the load limit. In the building of cyber capacity, at all the warfare of the future, with drones and automated systems, there is a backlog everywhere. And the biggest Problem is hardly addressed: to trim The collection of device and systems to Ammunition calibers and radio standards back to smooth cooperation.

Germany is considered unreliable

That the Germany must serve in the Nato once and for all than to toddle man, has a simple reason. Of the dominant political and economic Power of Europe, other expect this Status is adequate commitment. The Federal government wants to increase their accept budget by 2024 but only 1.5 percent of the gross national product. To interpret this as a serious movement "in the direction of two percent", as required by the Nato-commitment by 2014, requires quite a bit of good will.

Because of arms deal with Moscow, USA stop fighter jet delivery to Turkey

come To more and more problems important Partner, with the German Version of pacifism in Armaments. French, British, also Italians and Spaniards do not want to accept that the image raises a hand, speaking in full German screws in a jointly-built tanks the device is in the Berlin export restrictions. At the working level but we hear hardly any complaints. Germany's role as the most important of troops abroad is appreciated. Cooperation with neighbors is exemplary – from the German-French over the German-Dutch Corps to the headquarters of the multinational Corps northeast in Szczecin.