Italy: why does the electoral system promote political instability?

Asked last August about the Italian legislative elections, which are being held this Sunday, September 25, Pope Francis expressed his perplexity with the Italian political system. "Italian politics, I don't really understand it. These 20 governments in 20 years, it's a bit strange," he said, before conceding that everyone had their own way of "dancing the tango". But what are the "strange" peculiarities of transalpine politics?

Before looking at its electoral process, it is worth looking at the Italian political system. Traumatized by more than twenty years of fascist dictatorship, the founding fathers of the Republic promulgated, in 1947, a Constitution based on the idea that not only no new Benito Mussolini could one day have full powers, but also that no party is not able to crush the others. This idea, democratically virtuous, poses problems of governance. Indeed, if the executive has very little power - which is far from being a special case in Europe - the legislative power is split into two chambers of equal influence, in what is called "bicameralism perfect". The latter therefore have the power to overthrow the governments in place, when the other democracies in Europe grant, in principle, this right to the so-called lower house.

Thus, since 1944 and the return of democracy in Italy, 67 governments have succeeded. Distrust of parties has been constitutionalized in order to promote the development of alliances. However, these have, in fact, the disadvantage of quickly disintegrating. For recent examples, in 2018 the alliance between Matteo Salvini's League and Beppe Grillo's 5 Star Movement did not last more than a year, while Mario Draghi had to resign last July after having been disavowed by three allied parties.

If governments last on average 384 days since the return of democracy in Italy, it is because the voting system requires coalitions. Of the 400 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, 245 are allocated by proportional representation, 147 by a first-past-the-post system, while the remaining 8 seats are reserved for the choice of Italians living abroad, who vote according to the proportional method. . 253 seats are therefore allocated to the parties according to the total share of votes they obtain, as is the case in Spain or Sweden. The other 147 seats are allocated to the candidates who have obtained the most votes, according to the Anglo-Saxon principle of "winner takes all", in force in the United Kingdom or the United States.

When they go to the polls, voters therefore vote both for a party and for a name, choosing, in parallel, the seats allocated to the proportional mode and those allocated according to the single-member system. As far as the Senate is concerned, the system is the same. Of the 200 seats, 122 are filled by proportional representation while 74 are filled by the first-past-the-post system. The last 4 are reserved for the votes of Italians living abroad, according to the proportional mode.

The voting intentions for this Sunday's legislative elections give the far-right Fratelli d'Italia party the lead with 25% of the voting intentions, ahead of the Democratic Party (22%), the 5 Star Movement (15%), the League (12%), and Forza Italia (8%). The parties Fratelli d'Italia, the League and Forza Italia being allies, they should, if the results confirm the polls, be able to easily form a coalition government. As for the identity of the future head of government, it could well be the President of Fratelli d'Italia, Giorgia Meloni, her party being the best placed of the three right-wing parties. Developed to oppose fascism, the Italian Constitution could finally soon consecrate one of its heirs.