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Elections in Brazil: between Jair Bolsonaro and Lula, an end to the campaign under tension

This Saturday, October 1, on the eve of the ballot, the two favorites in the Brazilian presidential election, Lula and Jair Bolsonaro, are playing their last cards in the electoral campaign in Sao Paulo, the country's largest city.

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Elections in Brazil: between Jair Bolsonaro and Lula, an end to the campaign under tension

This Saturday, October 1, on the eve of the ballot, the two favorites in the Brazilian presidential election, Lula and Jair Bolsonaro, are playing their last cards in the electoral campaign in Sao Paulo, the country's largest city. These last hours on the ground promise to be "very tense". "Everyone will observe the smallest details that could tip the balance one way or the other," Jairo Nicolau, political scientist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, told AFP.

This tension was already palpable Thursday evening during the last televised debate on the TV Globo channel, the most watched in the country. Lula and Bolsonaro surrendered blow for blow, calling each other "liar" and "corrupt" in turn. Incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro, who is also campaigning intensely on social media, called the former milling turner a "traitor to the fatherland". Lula retorted that he would "send him home" by winning in the first round of elections. The ex-president accuses the current, a former soldier, far-right leader, of having armed the Brazilians and decimated the Amazon rainforest. Bolsonaro, he prides himself on having reduced the unemployment figures.

The polling institute Datafolha gave, Thursday evening, Lula still well ahead of the voting intentions, with 14 points ahead of Bolsonaro (48% against 34%). To obtain a third mandate on Sunday, the ex-president, who campaigned on the "useful vote", must obtain at least 50% of the votes cast, that is to say without the invalid ballots or the blanks.

If he returned to power, Lula, 76, president from 2003 to 2010, admitted Friday at a press conference to fear "trouble" during the transition period between the two governments, which should last until January 1 . Jair Bolsonaro has given plenty of signs that he might not recognize the results if he loses. In particular, he invoked the risk of "fraud", without however providing any proof.

Last week, the Head of State said that it would be "abnormal" if he did not obtain at least 60% of the votes in the first round, and multiplied the attacks against the system of electronic ballot boxes, in force in Brazil since 1996. "The results of the ballot boxes will be respected provided that the elections are clean and transparent", he declared during the campaign. The question is considered serious, so much so that the United States got involved.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Friday that he expects Brazil to demonstrate the strength of its democratic institutions in the first round of the presidential election. With the exponential increase in gun licenses under President Bolsonaro, experts fear violent incidents, such as the invasion of the Capitol in Washington after the defeat of Donald Trump in the US presidential election in January 2021.

The duel at loggerheads grabs all the attention, but voters will also choose their deputies, senators and state governors on Sunday. A total of 1,627 mandates are at stake in these general elections, for which more than 156 million Brazilians are called to the polls.

The political landscape is made up of a myriad of small formations, including those of the "Centrao", parties which most often monetize their support for government posts or subsidies for their electoral strongholds. In total, no less than 23 parties share the 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies.

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