Virus: the strange relationship between infections and mortality

Waiting to be able to classify the Covid-19 in the history of medicine when the epidemic is overcome, the worldwide statistics on the viruses that have beset humanity in the last century, we show that there is a real inverse correlation between infectivity and lethality of these pathogens. With measles and rotavirus worldwide who are champions of infection but that do relatively few victims and lethal viruses such as rabies, which if not recognized and treated immediately, it has a mortality rate of 100%. The law of nature From the data accumulated over the decades by organisations such as the Institut Pasteur of Paris and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta you may notice that a viral disease fatal is nearly always a rate of infectivity is very low while the virus is highly contagious corresponds to a lethality low. It would seem a real law of nature that has so far led man to survive, albeit with great losses, even in the darkest periods, such as the bubonic plague of the FOURTEENTH century or the Spanish flu of 1918. Currently, the Covid-19, according to the partial data of the world health Organization, has a prevalence rate of 2% and a mortality rate of about 3%. Numbers that correspond to a mortality rate relatively low, but to a spread of no small account as we are seeing these days. The index of the contagion index the contagion of a virus, a bacterium, or a parasite is marked with the symbol R0. If this is equal to 1 means that each infected can infect only one person, if it is lower than 1 means that it can infect less than one person, and then that the disease is bound to extinguish by itself. The problems arise when this index is higher than 1. If you really the Covid-19 at the end will have an R0 of 2 will mean that every person can we share it with the other two, and if you do not stop the spread with the isolation of the sick, the infected are doubling in each cycle. The virus is most contagious is Rotavirus that has a rate of contagiousness (R0) of 17.6, but a mortality equal to zero. The second most contagious is Dengue, with an R0 of 11 and mortality, if untreated for time, of 0.4% followed by Measles with an R0 of 9-12 and a mortality of 0.7% to 0.8%. And yet the chicken Pox with a R0 of 8.5, and a zero mortality and Mumps with R0 7, and mortality of 0.01%. From rabies to Hiv, of Course, it is good to clarify that I do not have mortality or having a low does not mean that there are no consequences since some of the effects of these viruses, however, can be problematic and sometimes permanent. For example, in the anger is not treated, as is especially the case in poor countries (but last year there was a case fatal in Italy and one in Norway), the mortality rate is 100% in the face of a contagion R0 of 1.6. Behind the anger the epidemiological continue to enter for the lethality of HIV, which, with a contagiousness R0 of 6, if not treated, as is the case now in many countries of the world, is lethal to 80%. The H5N1 bird flu with the contagiousness R0, 1 remains a lethal virus in 58% of cases, that drops to 50% for the Ebola virus, with contagiousness, however, double (R0 2,2). The first SARS which spread between the end of 2002 and half of 2003 showed an index of contagiousness R0 2.8 and a mortality rate of 9.6%.

"The Republic will fight always in defense of the freedom of information, to its readers and to all those who have at heart the principles of democracy and civil coexistence"

Carlo Verdelli SUBSCRIBERS TO REPUBLIC © Reproduction reserved Today to Find alternative solutions to the lessons suspended due to a virus, The minister Jay: “No you are political. A plan for the maturity” of The tangling of power The paradox of Milan: from the city-the miracle on the sick imaginary to Live with the fragility

the Republic