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The stock market crash in the price of oil may have been an overreaction

(Obi.no): Tuesday falling oil prices for the 12. day in a row. It has never happened before.

Wednesday morning brings oil prices up slightly again, but on the lowest in the dead of night electronic trading entered the us lettoljen for 54,75 dollars, down 28,6 per cent from the top of the 76,72 dollars the 3. October.

Brent was at the same time down 24,6% from the top on the same day, to the 65,01 dollars.

Why low oil prices

the Reasons for oljeprisfallet is complex, but increasing production along with a lower, expected consumption going forward, have contributed. It that the sanctions against Iran, which would be implemented 4. november was shuffled on before mellomvalget, so that large oljeimporterende countries such as Japan and China could continue to buy oil from Iran last year, has also been a strong contributory cause.

Handelskrigen also creates the fear of slowing growth in the world economy and thus also expectations of lower oil demand.

It is spoken also about the fact that speculative positions have changed faster than ever and that the closest has been hostile to the panikkhandel. A oljeekspert have not seen before in its 35 years in the industry.

also Read: - There is a certain kind of confusion and schizophrenia in the market

And when oil prices turned up slightly again on Monday, after Saudi Arabia and OPEC had suggested that those at the meeting 6. December may decide to cut production, is promoted to president Donald Trump on Twitter and thought it was a bad idea, and that oil prices should be lower, based on the large offer.

oil prices turned then straight down again and fell 6 to 7 percent.

- the Reason for the price fall was the Twitter message to Trump, that was very surprising, " says Trond Omdal, who since may has been the commander for E&P (oil and gassatsingen) in the corporate finance department at Fearnley Securities, to the Obi.no

He adds that it seems that Trump and the united STATES will have an oil price of 65-70 per barrel, while Saudi Arabia wants that the should be at 80-85 dollars.

" It will be a compromise between these two, but I think the numbers will be a piece of closer Saudi-Arabia wants, than the United states, says Omdal.

Oljeprisens importance the price of oil: Oljeekspert Trond Omdal in Fearnley Securities provides Donald Trump to blame for the oljeprisfallet Monday and Tuesday. Photo: Kyrre Lien / Scanpix Show more

the price of oil is important because the state budget is well on its way is dependent on the price of oil for it to be a decent profit and that its oil wealth should be supplied more money.

Revenues in the state budget for 2019 estimated at 312,8 billion, equivalent to 21,9 per cent of the total revenues in the budget of mnok 1 430,4 billion.

The total surplus is estimated at 279 billion, up from 141,3 billion in the year. It is respectively 50,4 and 97.5 percent more than what the government now think it will be in years. But it all depends on the price of oil.

In the government's budget for 2019, it is assumed an oil price of 583 million. When the budget was put forward the 8. October was the 690 million barrel. On the night of Wednesday, fell to 554 million.

Read also: The three most important figures in the state budget

Supply and demand

The average the crude oil production for OPEC countries is estimated to have been 32,90 million barrels per day in October 2018 - 127.000 barrels per day higher than the month before.

The global oil demand for 2018 is estimated to 98,79 million barrels per day, the same as in the previous report.

In that case, we are talking about a growth in demand from 2017 to 2018 at 1.5 million barrels per day, which corresponds to a marginal downward revision.

Among the largest contributors are first and foremost the united STATES and China, but also India.

the Demand for OPEC oil is estimated to be 32,59 million barrels per day in 2018, representing a downward revision of 10,000 barrels from the previous report.

The global oil demand for 2019 is estimated now to 100,08 million barrels per day, a downward revision of 70,000 barrels from the previous report.

In this case, we are talking about a growth in demand from 2018 to 2019 in 1,29 million barrels per day, which corresponds to a downward revision of 70,000 barrels.

the Demand for OPEC oil is estimated to be 31,54 million barrels per day in 2019, which corresponds to a downward revision of 30,000 barrels from the previous report.

Jacks offer good up

at the same time jekkes 2018-production outside of OPEC (non-OPEC) up to 59,86 million barrels per day.

This corresponds to an upward revision of 90,000 barrels per day compared with the previous report.

59,86 million barrels per day equivalent at the same time a growth at 2.31 million barrels per day compared with 2017.

In the previous report was the increase in production outside OPEC is estimated to 2,22 million barrels per day.

2019-production outside of OPEC (non-OPEC) is estimated now to 62,09 million barrels per day.

This corresponds to an upward revision of 200,000 barrels per day compared with the previous report.

the upward revision is despite the nedreviderte forecasts for both Canada, Mexico, Brazil and China.

62,09 million barrels per day corresponds to a growth at 2.23 million barrels per day compared with 2018.

In the previous report was the increase in production outside OPEC is estimated to be 2,12 million barrels per day.

the united STATES, Brazil, Canada and the Uk are the premier vekstdriverne, while Mexico, Norway, Indonesia and Vietnam is expected to draw the most.

the united STATES rock on

By 2019-forecast at 2.23 million barrels per day, estimated the united STATES to help with an increase of 1,69 million barrels per day.

the Growth is thus taken up with the whole 310.000 fat from 1.38 million barrels per day in the previous report.

In 2019 is estimated thus, the total production in the united STATES now 18,15 million barrels per day, of which 12,06 million barrels of crude oil (crude).

By this again estimated the production of shale oil ("tight oil") to 7,36 million barrels per day in 2019, which in this case will be 1,17 million barrels per day from 2018.

This production will, according to the OPEC mainly distribute themselves with 3,41 million barrels in the Permian, 1,47 million barrels in the Eagle Ford and than 1.44 million barrels on the Ground.

the increase in Production of american shale oil is regarded as OPECs largest headache, and it thus has deteriorated in the last month.

Saudi-coverage of the Iran-fall

According to estimates from the annenhåndskilder came OPEC production in October 2018 so into 32,90 million barrels per day, up 127.000 barrel from september.

The united arab emirates, the production increased the most: 142.000 barrels per day to 3,16 million barrels per day.

Saudi Arabia has jacked up his production with 127.000 fat to 10,63 million barrels per day.

In Libya increased production by 60,000 barrels to 1,114 million barrels per day, while Angola and Qatar also produced more.

In the light of the United states ' Iran sanctions, it is no surprise that production fell most where, that is to say with 156.000 fat to 3,296 million barrels per day.

oil prices turn up again?

night fell, the Brent oil for 65,01 dollars a barrel, but Wednesday morning is the 1.2 dollars to 66,64 dollars. The american lettoljen is up 60 cents to 56,29 dollars.

the oil price has picked up slightly again on Wednesday morning.

Even though the oil market has reached a balance now, indicating 2019-forecast a growth in production outside OPEC, higher than the rate of growth in world oil demand, which will lead to increased have excess supply in the market, said the report.

the Figures underline thus why Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members are talking about cutting production again, and forces according to Bloomberg their case for a significant produksjonskutt on the OPEC meeting in Vienna 6. December.

OPECs secretary general Mohammad Barkindo acknowledged according to the news on Monday that the resurgence of production outside the OPEC begins to "see" alarming out".

He tuned now a need for the OPEC and their allies outside of the organization agree on a produksjonskutt one million barrels per day on the aforementioned gathering in Vienna.

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