The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a “significant supply shortage” of oil in the 4th quarter of 2023 after the announcement in early September of the extension of cuts in Russian and Saudi production and exports, Wednesday in its monthly report. These cuts should result in “a substantial deficit” of one million barrels per day for OPEC countries, “increasing the risk” of “volatility” on the markets, analyzes the IEA. “Production cuts by OPEC members of more than 2.5 mb/d since the start of 2023 have so far been offset by higher supply from producers outside the alliance,” notes t -she though. The IEA mentions in particular the United States and Brazil which supported “an increase of 1.9 mb/d in non-OPEC production from January to August, while Iran, still under sanctions, increased its production of around 600,000 b/d. “But starting in September, the OPEC production cut, led by Saudi Arabia, will lead to a significant supply deficit until the fourth quarter,” she added.
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As early as August, the IEA had warned of a new record in global oil demand, with an increase of 2.2 million barrels per day “compared to 2022” to reach 102.2 mb/d in 2023. The agency maintained this forecast in its report, driven by the return of Chinese consumption, aviation fuels and petrochemicals, a trend that is expected to continue in 2024, despite a slowdown in demand growth. These IEA forecasts echo the monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) published Monday: OPEC thus estimated that in the fourth quarter, demand could exceed crude supply by 3. 3 million barrels, which would be a first in 16 years.
OPEC's announcement logically caused market prices to soar on Monday: during the session, the two black gold references rose to their highest level since November. Shortly before noon on Tuesday, the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in November gained 0.54% to 92.56 dollars and at the same time, the barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), with delivery in October , took 0.60% to 89.38 dollars. The effect on prices of this imbalance between supply and demand is accentuated by a tense situation on the stock side, adds the IEA.