The job market is still showing resistance. In the third quarter, salaried employment was, like the previous quarter, “almost stable”, indicates a final publication from INSEE this Wednesday. It thus increased by 36,700 jobs, a figure higher than the 26,800 jobs in the second quarter. Enough to bring the total “0.8% above its level one year previously”, and 4.8% above its pre-health crisis level.
INSEE has revised its first, so-called “flash”, estimate upwards considerably from the beginning of November. Experts then expected a decline in salaried employment of 0.1% over the quarter. The estimate is therefore “increased by 48,400 jobs with a relative change revised by 0.2 points. This revision results in particular from a more marked impact than anticipated from the integration of late declarations,” explains the publication. Over the three months, therefore, creations exceeded the 30,000 mark in the private sector. At the same time, 6,000 jobs were created in the public sector.
In detail, creations continue to be numerous in industry - where the balance sheet exceeds the pre-Covid period by 2.4% - and the tertiary sector, whether commercial or non-commercial. Conversely, salaried employment is decreasing in agriculture and construction. Likewise, temporary employment, an indicator of the vitality of the labor market, “declined for the third consecutive quarter”. It is thus “a little below” its pre-Covid level.
In recent months, salaried employment has slowed considerably, as post-Covid inflation, the war in Ukraine and the international situation chipped away at the beautiful dynamics of the French economy. While total salaried employment increased by 1.2% in the second quarter of 2021, this rate has fallen below 0.5% since the start of 2022. It even reached 0.1% between April and June last year, a level “almost stable”, according to national statisticians. However, despite these difficulties, employment is declining but not breaking: no net destruction has been recorded over the last three years in the private sector, which exceeds its pre-health crisis level of 1.2 million jobs, according to the 'Insee.
Not enough to reassure the executive, who watches the job market month after month and watches with concern as the signals change from green to orange. Emmanuel Macron thus keeps in mind his objective of reaching full employment by the end of his second five-year term, a goal that is increasingly elusive, while unemployment has started to rise slightly again. To stop this bad dynamic, the government has launched several trial balloons, such as an additional turn of the screw on conventional terminations, which Matignon considers too numerous, or an effort on the duration of unemployment compensation for seniors.