Denmark's two coronageneraler, Søren Brostrøm and Kåre Mølbak, was pleasantly surprised when the 20. march got the new number for coronaudviklingen in Denmark:
Smittetrykket was lower than expected, and they were touching agree that it should be published with the same.
There was just one problem. It they had not.
'It will not be political', wrote the Danish national board of Health director Brostrøm in a concise email to coronakollegaen from the Statens Serum Institut.
It displays a access to their e-mail correspondence, which Ekstra Bladet has received.
the Danish policy - 26. may. 2020 - pm. 19:10 Warnings against the shutdown have disappeared from the report
the Numbers and the report did not come to public knowledge, before the prime minister Mette Frederiksen extended the massive shutdown of Denmark 23. march.
The brand new numbers on the coronageneralernes board describing, among other things, to smittetrykket was 2.1 and not the 2.6, which previously had operated with in the calculations of how big the pressure on hospital intensive care units could be.
the Figure for intensivkapaciteten is one of the essential frames of reference for the authorities.
'We had hoped to be able to send it today', wrote Brostrøm to Mølbak, where also the health ministry's permanent secretary, Per Okkels, was on the mailing list.
It gets Mølbak to ask back:
'Dear Søren, this means that intensive-the report does not come out in the day? The figure gives reason for restrained optimism', says, among other things from Mølbak.
'Totally agree [...] that we should send out strategy report and the ITA's analysis today, but it will not be political, said Brostrøm return.
'I understand that it may be on Monday that we can send out', he concludes.
Monday was the day, Mette Frederiksen, prolonged closure, and first here came the report.
Correspondence relating to the smittetryk (PDF)
Correspondence on the smittetryk (Text)
It was actually ground-breaking new that smittetrykket in Denmark - with large uncertainties - was calculated to 2.1 in the days around the 20. march.
the Figure was expressed that each coronasyg average dane would reach an infection of 2.1 other people, even was healthy again.
the Week before had the prime minister Mette Frederiksen - even a press conference - mentioned issue, but she gave a completely different example:
- If one person infects three others, and they each infect three, then nine people infected. And if the nine again rubs three, so we are almost 30 infected, it sounded alarming message from the prime minister.
But at the press conference on Monday the 23. march by Mette Frederiksen, to the authorities ' assessment was that smittetrykket in Denmark was down to 2.1.
It gives not 'nearly 30' of new infections in the third part. It gives the 9.2.
the Danish policy - 27. may. 2020 - pm. 10:40 Corona: Now, Mette F. thrown open
Both Mølbak and Brostrøm is in the exchange agree that it is - despite the positive figures, still need to maintain the strategy to 'keep the distance', because smittetrykket 2.1 still needs to be brought down. The virus does not go into itself again, before it is under 1.
But there is no doubt that the lower smittetryk, was a positive news both for the professionals, politicians and the population, explains Jan Pravsgaard Christensen, professor of immunology, University of Copenhagen, denmark.
- It is clear, that, if they can figure out to 2.1 instead of 2.6, so is it not just as wrong, as we had feared in the first place, he says.
- The higher the spread of infection, the faster and the more drastic measures they can make in their contingency plan, he says.
See also: Spit it out, Mette F.
He stresses that as long as the infection was over 2, it was not enough to changed the strategy and, for example, of the open parts of the country again.
Søren Brostrøm don't want to make up to the interview and explain the case, and the Danish Health and medicines authority does not wish to send a written quote.
Kåre Mølbak, and the Statens Serum Institut also do not want to speak to Ekstra Bladet.
'It will be a friendly no thank you from here this time,' writes the institute.
Ekstra Bladet has tried in vain to get a comment from the Health ministry and the prime minister's office.
This - day
- 20. march at 13:59
Kåre Mølbak, technical director at Statens Serum Institut, send a note, showing that smittetrykket in Denmark to 2.1 and not the 2.6 which has so far been anticipated.
the Memo sent to the Danish Health and medicines authority and the departmental head in the ministry of Health.
20. march at 14.45
Søren Brostrøm, director of the national board of Health, the equivalent of the other, that he is 'completely agree' that 'we ought to send' the information.
'But it will not be political, and I understand it can be on Monday that we can send out,' he writes.
23. march at 13.58
TV2 brings the news that ‘the State Serum Institute calls for the extension of restrictions’. The article reports on the new figures for the spread of infection.
Statens Serum Institut publishes Kåre Mølbaks note, which is now omdateret to 23. march.
23. march at 15.00
Prime minister Mette Frederiksen (S) holds the press conference. Here announces she, to extend the decommissioning of Denmark.Show more Close