Cereal is Putin's secret weapon for putting pressure on Europe. He is not just playing with his own blockade of Odessa port, where Ukraine exports millions upon millions of tons per year, to try and deprive the 400,000,000 people around the world who depend on Ukrainian grain. The shortage of grain will soon be felt in Spain. Our country produces 25.4 million tonnes of grain annually, while the Spanish consume 36. This makes us a net exporter.
Espana is a net importer of cereal
In millions of tons
Production
25.4
Consumption
36
Espana is a net importer of cereal
In millions of tons
Production
25.4
Consumption
36
Espana is a net importer of cereal
In millions of tons
Production
Consumption
25.4
36
Espana is a net importer of cereal
In millions of tons
Production
Consumption
25.4
36
The solution to growing more is not so simple. It is not easy. Brussels has offered to allow the cultivation of the land it had been forced to maintain fallow. However, the area is only 600,000 hectares and it isn't known if farmers will be willing to work again due to rising production costs. Juan Carlos Higueras, an expert professor on the agri-food sector at EAE Business School, says that cultivating fallow requires rotating the land more. This depletes the land for new crops and also requires more fertilizers.
Farmers win
Land for your crops
Millions of hectares
Surface
in Barbecho
Surface to Pass
The cultivation of the pasture
0.6
2.2
21.5
50.6
Area total
From Spain
Area total
For cultivation
Farmers gain ground
For your crops
Millions of hectares
Surface
in Barbecho
Surface to Pass
The cultivation of the pasture
2.2
21.5
50.6
0.6
Area total
For cultivation
Area total
From Spain
Land is available to farmers for their crops
Millions of hectares
50.6
Surface
Total of
spain
21.5
Surface
Total for
The crop
2.2
Surface
in Barbecho
0.6
Surface
What will happen?
per meal or
crop
Land is available to farmers for their crops
Millions of hectares
50.6
Area total
From Spain
21.5
Area total
For cultivation
2.2
Areas of fallow
0.6
Surface to Pass
The cultivation of the pasture
Even though there is an increase in demand, small farmers will not be able to benefit. Prices for fertilizers and energy have increased, as well as fuels. Farmers are now paying much higher feed prices for their animals which leads to an increase in meat prices. Higueras says that there will be less chicken meat in supermarkets after summer because these animals eat a lot more grain than farmers, and that "will reduce production and increase prices a lot."
The PAC agreed to temporarily relax phytosanitary requirements (insecticides), for cereal imports from countries that were previously more closely monitored, like Argentina and Brazil. This will help to "cushion" the effects of the shortage of Ukrainian grain but it will not fully cover the fall. To that must be added the import costs from other parts of the world with cargo ships crossing the Atlantic.
Countries of origin
Imports
Spanish cereal
In 2021
Millions of Euros
Canada
France
113.2
744.8
800
Lithuania
Ukraine
600
400
124
545.4
200
Poland
Brazil
409
131.9
Bulgaria
Romania
216.5
373.9
The countries of origin
Spanish cereal imports for 2021
Millions of Euros
Canada
France
744.8
113.2
800
600
Lithuania
Ukraine
400
124
545.4
200
Brazil
Poland
409
131.9
Bulgaria
Romania
216.5
373.9
Imports from countries of origin
Spanish cereal companies to be established in 2021
Millions of Euros
113.2
744.8
Canada
France
800
600
124
545.4
400
Ukraine
Lithuania
200
131.9
409
Poland
Brazil
216.5
373.9
Bulgaria
Romania
In 2021, Spanish cereal imports from countries of origin will be made in the following countries:
Millions of Euros
113.2
744.8
Canada
France
800
600
400
124
545.4
Ukraine
Lithuania
200
131.9
409
Poland
Brazil
216.5
373.9
Bulgaria
Romania
When Putin was unaware that the invasion would occur a few months later in 2021, Spain imported cereals mostly from France, Ukraine, and Brazil with a total of 3,343 millions euros. The situation was changed when the conflict broke out. Our country was the main supplier of cereals to Ukraine in January and February (222.5 million and 198 millions euros, respectively), nearly doubling our purchases from France. However, the downward trend started in March and ended April with just 5 million euros worth of Ukrainian grain imports. Antonio Bonet, president of Exporters Club, says that Ukraine has been, along with France, the main supplier for this product to Spain since the dawn of the 21st Century. He alternates between the first and the second position.
Evolution of
Imports of Spanish cereals in 2022
Millions of Euros
ROMANIA
UKRAINE
FRANCE
January
February
March
April
222.5
198.1
107.2
86.7
73.5
113.6
66.5
47.9
29.1
37.5
36.4
5
TOTAL
462
381
181
ROMANIA
UKRAINE
FRANCE
Evolution of imports
Spanish cereal companies in 2022
Millions of Euros
ROMANIA
UKRAINE
FRANCE
January
February
March
April
222.5
198.1
107.2
86.7
73.5
113.6
66.5
47.9
29.1
37.5
36.4
5
TOTAL
462
381
181
ROMANIA
UKRAINE
FRANCE
In 2022, the evolution of Spanish cereal imports
Millions of Euros
January
February
March
April
UKRAINE
222.5
198.1
107.2
86.7
FRANCE
73.5
113.6
66.5
47.9
ROMANIA
29.1
37.5
36.4
5
TOTAL
462
381
181
ROMANIA
UKRAINE
FRANCE
In 2022, the evolution of Spanish cereal imports
Millions of Euros
January
February
March
April
TOTAL
462
UKRAINE
222.5
198.1
107.2
86.7
381
FRANCE
73.5
113.6
66.5
47.9
181
ROMANIA
29.1
37.5
36.4
5
It is interesting that, despite Spain producing less than it consumes, it exports cereal in small quantities. In 2021, Spain sold 451 million euros worth of grain. According to the Exporters Club, it was mostly destined for Portugal (22%), France (16%) and Belgium. It also went to the United Kingdom (Algeria) and the United States. The war's outbreak has not only tempered exports but also saved more product for national consumption. In February sales were 77.1 million euros, and rose to 66 millions in April.
The evolution of Spanish cereal sales and purchase
Millions of Euros
Imports
Exports
3,343.6
450.7
2,663.1
491.9
3,212,9
459.2
3.157.5
407.4
Imports
Exports
338.4
66.3
366.4
67.5
476
77.1
464.3
32.2
The evolution of Spanish cereal sales and purchase
Millions of Euros
Imports
Exports
3,343.6
450.7
2,663.1
491.9
3,212,9
459.2
3.157.5
407.4
Imports
Exports
338.4
66.3
366.4
67.5
476
77.1
464.3
32.2
The evolution of Spanish cereal sales and purchase
Millions of Euros
Imports
Exports
3,343.6
450.7
338.4
2,663.1
66.3
491.9
366.4
3,212,9
67.5
459.2
476
3.157.5
77.1
407.4
464.3
32.2
Evolution of the purchase
Sale and purchase of grain
Spain
Millions of Euros
3,343.6
450.7
338.4
2,663.1
66.3
491.9
366.4
Exports
3,212,9
67.5
459.2
476
3.157.5
77.1
407.4
464.3
Imports
32.2
Because different countries have different cereals, this is why it happens. Spain is home to large amounts of soft wheat and barley, but it also needs to import nearly all of its corn. In 2021, it bought 510 million euros from Ukraine, which represents 93% of the total amount of cereals it buys.
What kind of cereal?
Spain
In %
42.9
BARLEY
WHEAT
SOFT
28
CORN
15.7
WHEAT
STAND
3.2
What kind of cereal is Spain producing?
In %
42.9
BARLEY
WHEAT
SOFT
28
CORN
15.7
WHEAT
STAND
3.2
What kind of cereal is Spain producing?
In %
CORN
WHEAT
STAND
WHEAT
SOFT
BARLEY
42.9
3.2
15.7
28
What kind of cereal is Spain producing?
In %
CORN
WHEAT
STAND
WHEAT
SOFT
BARLEY
42.9
3.2
15.7
28
Evolution of
In 2021, Spanish Imports to Ukraine by Type of Cereal
Millions of Euros
CENTENO
CORN
WHEAT
BARLEY
BIRDSEED
23.5
3,5
7.6
510.3
0.5
TOTAL
545.4
In 2021, the evolution of Spanish imports into Ukraine by type and cereal
Millions of Euros
CENTENO
CORN
BARLEY
WHEAT
BIRDSEED
23.5
3,5
7.6
510.3
0.5
TOTAL
545.4
Spanish Imports: Evolution
Ukraine by type and cereal in 2021
Millions of Euros
CORN
WHEAT
CENTENO
BARLEY
BIRDSEED
23.5
3,5
7.6
510.3
0.5
TOTAL
545.4
In 2021, the evolution of Spanish imports into Ukraine by type and cereal
Millions of Euros
CORN
WHEAT
CENTENO
BARLEY
BIRDSEED
23.5
3,5
510.3
0.5
TOTAL
545.4
How will this affect consumers? For the rest of the year, there will be even greater price increases. The EAE Business School expert says that all products made from flour such as pizza, pasta, pastries, and bread will increase in price over the coming months. Gelt's most recent report shows that food staples increased five times faster than headline inflation between April and May. Kantar, a consulting firm, warned that 4 percent of Spanish households cannot afford to buy even the most basic food items in their shopping basket.
The evolution of agricultural food since 2021 can be seen. An Allianz report estimates that there was an increase of 31% in agricultural food. This is despite the war having exploded. They predict that they will rise another 23% by 2022 because of the increase in inputs (fuels, electricity, fertilizers ).
The worst part is that, despite an increase in these foods' prices, the study calculates retail prices have been adjusted to 6%. This means that only half of the producer price increase has been transferred to consumers.
Ukraine has 25 million tonnes of grain left over from previous harvests, which is difficult to sell. European countries have begun to get this merchandise out, and to be able to sell it. Spain is leading the initiative to start a project that will allow for 8,000 tons of grain from Ukraine between July and September.
In collaboration with France, Luxembourg, and Poland, the initiative involves transporting the grain by train from France to Spain. From there, silos can be placed in several ports along the Mediterranean coast like Tarragona, Tartagena, and Barcelona. Then, it can then be shipped to your destination country.