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Warning: the Swiss Roulette of the national Bank

"We strongly advise you to bring money in Switzerland or buy a Swiss franc." This warning the two German Economists Matthias Weik and Marc Friedrich, published at the weekend on the Swiss info platform info Sparrowhawk. Reason for warning the policy of the Swiss national Bank (SNB).

Either SNB President Thomas, Jordan a genius, or he was playing "a new game: Swiss Roulette". The two play the potentially deadly game of Russian Roulette in which a player keeps a Revolver with exactly one bullet in the drum at the temple and in the hope of pulling the trigger that the bullet is fired. "If the Central Bank policy from the SNB goes wrong, Switzerland will be a de facto of bankrupt", to justify Weik and Friedrich your comparison.

they show their sharp warnings with the two most important, last Thursday, the SNB confirmed the pillars of the Swiss monetary policy : the negative interest rates and purchases of foreign exchange by fresh-made Swiss franc, to prevent an excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc. The national Bank is in the light of this policy, "a leader in currency manipulation".

Particularly sharp, the two go with the purchases of foreign Exchange to the court, which is no longer made by the national Bank since the summer of 2017, however, the however, it is more open. With 778 billion Swiss francs, the geäufneten reserves now make up some 94 per cent of the 830 billion Swiss francs swollen SNB balance sheet. Even before the financial crisis, they were relatively stable in the range of 50 billion Swiss francs. The SNB balance sheet is larger than the gross domestic product of Switzerland (124%). As well as the authors hold, has no other Central Bank in the world, a similarly bloated balance sheet.

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As a problem which is both engaged also, how strong is the national Bank, in the meantime, in the stock markets, where it has invested about a fifth of its foreign currency investments. So you have more Facebook shares than Facebook-founder Mark Zuckerberg. The foreign exchange reserves, will enable even small changes in the valuation of very high profits, you risk but just as huge losses.

"Switzerland is in the sweat of the ECB, the Euro and the stock markets case", sum Weik and Friedrich. For the disintegration of Europe and a collapse of the Euro, the Swiss even military preparations would have made. To do this, refer to the Exercises in the Swiss military "Stabilo Due" from 2012 and "Conex 15" of 2015.

Matthias Weik and Marc Friedrich, in Germany, especially by means of books known as "The biggest robbery in history", "the Crash is the solution", "capital mistakes" and "they're dead meat!". All the works have a warning to alert undertone of ballistic. The two understand themselves as thinkers.

With your criticism of the SNB, but they are by no means alone. Very generally speaking, is increasing, and the same shock has direction as those of the two German Economists. The suspected currency manipulation, the SNB is exposed to, for example, in the case of the American government. The U.S. Department of the Treasury is, therefore, for some time under observation – not only since the arrival of Donald Trump.

The criticism of the Ex-SNB chief economist

In the domestic has already made the Finance Minister Ueli Maurer with a warning prior to the big balance sheet in the headlines. The most violent criticism of the negative interest rates.

Particularly painful for the SNB-the Bureau is likely that the critical comments from the own environment. The highly respected former chief economist of the Central Bank, Kurt Schilt makes a servant, made no secret of his opposition to this measure. In a comment, and a video contribution to the "Neue Zürcher Zeitung" he explained that the cost of negative interest rates – extremely low interest rates, big problems for pension funds, savers and banks would have no comparable Benefit. The continued emergency measures, the SNB will be all the more understood less and less, as the Swiss economy is still in very good shape.

Nevertheless, it is likely to change in the policy of the national Bank for an extended period of time nothing. By the end of next year, hardly anyone expects to start raising interest rates, an end to the negative interest rates is not expected before 2020. This is mainly due to the fact that you don't want to risk not re-appreciation of the Swiss franc, should you rush ahead with a rate increase before the European Central Bank (ECB). And of the ECB interest rate is expected to increase only in the second half of the year 2019.

The latest data from the real economy to Wake now even the fear of the normalization of monetary policy could drag on for much longer. For the Eurozone, flow show indicators such as the purchasing managers ' indices (PMI) for the bad image as long gone, and also the Swiss economy slowed in the third quarter of surprisingly strong gross domestic product is even have been slightly lower than in the previous quarter. (Editorial Tamedia)

Created: 17.12.2018, 20:54 PM

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