On Wednesday occurs Tidjane Thiam on the big stage. At the London investor day, he wants to show the world that his Credit Suisse (CS) is not a restructuring case, but a solid, forward-looking Bank – to weather all the crises that may come. A message that he already widespread since the beginning of the year, believe in him, but so far seem to be minimal. Because instead of the stock begins to rise rate finally, it broke within a year by more than a third.
in order Thiams Bank holds significantly worse than the UBS , which fell in the same period, a quarter of their value. The CEO Sergio Ermotti tried almost two months ago in London, to impress the investors. Alone, it was not possible. Two days after the promotional marathon, the initial share price gains. The words of the management of the big banks, investors will not trust, apparently.
President Urs Rohner will probably also need to buy shares
But then Ermotti did something no one expected: He invested 13 million Swiss francs of his own money in the shares of his Bank. Since then, it runs much better. And, more importantly, It has created a precedent, which analysts claim is now from the local rivals. According to Analyst Andreas Venditti writes about Vontobel in his report blatantly, it would be desirable in a sign of the management.
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According to information from the environment, the Thiams, it is understood that the expectation is there. After the investor day, the so-called Blackout period is over, then the Management can buy without insider charge back its own shares. Then time for the Proof is, at least from Thiam. It will be interesting whether also Chairman of the Board Urs Rohner, CS-buys shares. Both will have to almost, in particular, Rohner is accused of for a long time, he has been committed to little and refer to his Bonus in cash.
shareholders will also benefit directly. The dividend is to be increased and a stock-buyback program to be announced. 50 percent of the profits from 2019 and 2020 should be distributed, announced Thiam prior-year period. But there were doubts on whether the Bank has enough money for big gifts. She has apparently, at least in the judgment of management. A total of around 9 billion francs in profit the Bank expects to be for the next two years. Around 4.5 billion Swiss francs would be so free. This year's dividend of 25 cents per share, amounts to approximately 600 million Swiss francs. Over two years, the 1.2 billion. The remaining 3 billion would result in the order of magnitude for the share buy-back, say sources familiar with the program.
Broken should be with what could be called the "rip-off" by the privileged major shareholders. This is the so-called Cocos, high-yield bonds, which were issued after the financial crisis, sovereign wealth funds from Qatar and the Saudi family Olayan, instead of the CS, such as UBS, left the Swiss state to save.
be reassured A huge mistake: of 15 billion Swiss francs it cost the second-largest Swiss Bank. This will also give you known on Wednesday. 700 million Swiss francs in interest per year have been distributed since 2010 to much 5.6 billion in Total, so today's assessment. Added to this were almost 10 billion in dividends that it paid off, although it's actually too little capital was available. Responsible to make sure the CS today, the former CEO Brady Dougan. On high-yield bonds, the Bank can not do without. Approximately $ 3.5 billion it raised recently in London, at an interest rate of proud of 7.25 percent.
According to the insiders should not be calmed down on Wednesday, only the shareholders but also the employees. "The days of restructuring are gone," a core message. Although applicable, that the efficiency should be around 2 to 3 percent, however, through natural attrition and not through layoffs. The Bank even says "on the record", because of rumors about thousands of redundancies are in circulation.
Whether that's enough to give the share price momentum, is still questionable. Because trouble is expected, the Outlook for the Bank. Not for yourself, but for the economy. Apparently, she is on a recession in the United States.
Created: 09.12.2018, 17:50 PM