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The dispute about negative interest rates is exacerbated

fewer people and companies will remain of negative interest rates spared. As of December Finance the circle of those customers will also Post larger, where such charges to your account deposits to be charged. New savings accounts, the owner must pay a Deposit of 250000 francs – instead of 500000 Swiss franc negative interest rates, if you use other services from Postfinance. Credits that exceed this threshold are charged a fee of one percent. Post Finance has lowered the threshold for the first Time. A similar development can be seen in the case of other banks.

No wonder, also led the debate on the monetary policy of the Swiss national Bank (SNB) is always harder. With an avalanche of statements, position papers, and press conferences, the banks and their lobby organization – criticize the bankers Association – the negative interest rates. And the skepticism shows itself in the economy. A on Thursday from UBS published a survey of 2500 business leaders – executives and entrepreneurs – is evidence of this. Almost two-thirds of the respondents were of the view that the harmful consequences of negative interest rates to be Use of greater than your. Even a fifth of the heads of enterprises, which export more than half of their sales, shared this view. According to Daniel kalt, chief economist of the Bank, is the study representative of the Swiss commercial landscape.

The negative interest rates are one of the pillars of the current monetary policy of the SNB. With minus 0.75% in Switzerland they are as deep as anywhere else in the world. Specifically, the SNB will be charged a portion of the deposits of the banks on the accounts with her with this set. In September, they came to the banks counter. The proportion of negative interest rates affected deposits of the banks has reduced by almost half.

further reductions

But the dispute is not abated, therefore, threatening. The national Bank will be interpreted as a preparation for the next threat to come to meet – a reduction in the interest rates even deeper into negative territory. The deterioration of the world economy and an even more expansionary monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB) would be the motives for it. With a further reduction in interest rates, the UBS estimates, as it announced along with your company survey on Thursday.

SNB President Thomas Jordan made in an Interview in the "NZZ on Sunday" it clear that the Central Bank now has more room to the downside; that is, "one of the reasons why we have recently increased the exemption amounts for the banks, which in the case of negative interest rate relieved," he said. Of the UBS surveyed business leaders expect still for long periods of time with negative interest rates. Around 14 percent even think that you will never disappear, and 41 percent, that you find only between 2025 and 2029 to an end.

The Bank want a further appreciation of the Swiss franc

prevent The SNB wants to prevent that banks are forced for economic reasons to charge the end customer with a small credit balance with negative interest rates. This would lead to an enormous public and political pressure on the leaders of the SNB. However, many companies are already affected by this policy.

According to the UBS survey, around 14 percent of the companies paying negative interest rates on its cash and cash equivalents deposits and savings deposits. With increasing company size, the percentage of those Affected increases. Those with between 50 and 250 employees, it is already every fifth company. And these companies respond to this: 20 percent of them have deducted according to the survey, your money from the Bank.

With negative interest rates, as well as with their foreign currency purchases, the SNB pursues only one purpose: they want to prevent a further appreciation of the Swiss franc. To keep money in Switzerland, to be unattractive. For this reason, the SNB assumes that the negative interest rates prevail in the economy as a whole. If the banks to charge the cost of negative interest rates to all except their customers with small to medium deposits, money is like poison, avoided. Therefore, investors are willing to pay the Federal government something, so that you must not lend him money – on the purchase of state bonds. As long as the Holding of money is more expensive, is worth the effort. Low levels, the interest rates for loans connected with repayment risks, but – as in the case of mortgages.

policy in the country of interest

another danger of negative interest rates is: If the risk-taking to cheap is possible – not only in the mortgage markets, increase the dangers for the stability of the entire financial system. At the most, and makes the company but the deep interest of the pension Fund resources. In view of the low interest rates, the funds may not generate the returns they promise to position your Pension to depend on.

The SNB, the side effects of the low interest rate policy does not deny. Contrary to the banks and the majority of the companies surveyed, SNB President Jordan said a "thorough" examination will show that the negative interest rates were still necessary and in the interest of the country. In addition, the interest rates are not only due to the policy of the national Bank so deeply. And the national Bank would raise interest rates back to a minimum of zero – the essence of Jordan's argument would lead to a strong appreciation of the Swiss franc. What are the exports and thus the economic collapse in growth could suggest a strong increase in unemployment would result.

your main Argument, the SNB has set a line of reasoning is a problem – the connection of their Negative interest rates the Swiss franc exchange rate

on the Part of the banks do not dispute this line of reasoning: The francs you hold it there for overrated – a study of the Pictet even claimed that he was trade-weighted terms, already under-valued. In addition, the export industry could digest an appreciation of a good, as you have done in the recent time. These arguments of the banks are controversial. Because of very rapid appreciation of the Swiss franc hurt the Swiss economy is always difficult. Even in the survey conducted by the UBS will be clear: 15% of the exchange rate to the Euro dependent companies indicated that they would decrease in an Euro exchange rate of less than 1.10 Swiss francs in the loss zone, with a strongly export-oriented company, it would be a quarter. That the export industry can live with an expensive franc is in addition to the pharmaceutical industry, whose paragraphs are in fact to be very little affected by the exchange rate and which is counted to the industrial sector. More problematic is the situation for many exporters from the classic industry.

The most important of all the arguments for the justification of the negative interest rates the Swiss national Bank has, however, a reasoning problem – the connection of their Negative interest rates the Swiss franc exchange rate. Specifically, the reasons for its interest rate from minus 0.75 per cent, so that he had to be lower than in the Eurozone, where the same rate is now minus 0.5 percent. At the same interest rates or a smaller difference in appreciation would be a risk, because investments in Swiss francs were due to the greater stability in Switzerland more attractive.

is busy During this context, for ordinary times, there is not a single empirical study by Economists about how the looks in the environment of negative interest rates – not from the research Department of the national Bank. Here, at least the SNB to banks, with an open flank. Because in several papers, the Latter have contested the national Bank as the main argument in the game brought the importance of interest rate differential.

Created: 07.11.2019, 22:42 PM

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