The US government is the producer lights on the Oil market

The views of all stakeholders in the Oil business is currently focused on Saudi Arabia. How will the Kingdom after the US government's decision to ban Iran, in fact, from the Oil market? The Saudis will jump into the breach, meaning that their Oil production to increase and a supply shortage after the Iranian supply failure? This is one of the most-discussed question of Ölhändlern and analysts.

"The answer has a significant impact on how Oil prices will behave in the near term," says David Suchet, spokesman for the petroleum Association. "If Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, compensate for actually, the volumes of Iran, speaks nothing for a further increase in the price of Oil." A price forecast is not liked make Seek, however, to be much currently in limbo. Because apart from the failure of Iran, the spokesman for the local Öllobby to consider, "could it Supply to unplanned interruptions in Libya and Nigeria due to civil unrest".

jump for Oil

In the past weeks has increased the price of gasoline in Switzerland, according to Suchet, already "a few cents", and in comparison to the beginning of the year, it was at some gas price increases of more than 10 cents. This happened against the Background of significantly verteuerter oil prices: North sea Brent crude recorded since the beginning of this year, a price rise of 38 per cent.

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in just the last six days, until yesterday, Tuesday, the Brent prices have risen by 4 percent to 74.60 dollars per barrel. It's possible that motorists will still have to face higher fuel bills. According to a rule of thumb, it takes about two weeks to price changes on the oil markets hit the domestic petrol pumps.

the reason for the recent price jump is the decision of the United States, from Monday to tighten the last November imposed Ölsanktionen against Iran again. At the time Washington was granted for eight countries of temporary exemptions to purchase Iranian Oil. With these exceptions, now on 2. May be an end – while the players in the market mainly with a repeated extension of the special permits had expected.

China care about the welfare of

The complete exclusion from the Market of the Islamic Republic means, theoretically, that the Supply of oil shrinks to about 1 Million barrels per day. Open is now, as some of the affected eight countries in view of its expiration, the exception will be permits to react. China, which covered about half of the exported Iranian Oil, had on Monday announced that it will not respect the unilaterally by the United States in sanctions imposed.

Significant criticism of the actions of the US government, Turkey said earlier this week, and its President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan had declared last year that his country will Iran ignore the Oil embargo. From the Turkish economy, however, other tones are heard, There you would prefer not to Iranian Oil, in order not to fall again into an economic conflict with the United States.

From the environment of the Indian Prime Minister Narendra modi, it was said, according to media reports, you will bow to the more stringent US sanctions well-being and looking for other oil suppliers. What concerns the rest of "exception countries" – Greece, Italy, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, and therefore all of US-allies, so you are likely to the Iran-join the Boycott, if you have not already done it.

The Saudis tricked

thus, to assume that the US government can build a Front against the Mullah-Regime from may, a largely closed the Boycott, so you have to get now even Saudi Arabia. For the world's largest oil Exporter, there is a need in the composite with the United Arab Emirates, no huge effort, the production capacity to the extent of the expected Iranian cases of non-delivery.

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The Saudis had burned in the last year, but already the fingers as they expanded at the request of the USA, their Oil production to about 1 Million barrels per day, before Washington's sanctions announced on Iran. Since no one had reckoned with the said exemptions for Iranian Ölabnehmer, was suddenly too much of the black Gold on the market. In consequence, drove the price of Oil between early November and end of December 2018 by nearly a third in depth.

However, even if Saudi Arabia is once again in the USA clamp, to Price fluctuations to cushion the Oil market, remains a risk: Should the Iran-its threat and the Strait of Hormuz military lockdown, there would be Tanker with Saudi Oil, no more.

(editing Tamedia)

Created: 23.04.2019, 22:48 PM