The French economy, without a doubt, one of the most affected by the pandemic

Placed under containment is strict, the French economy has without doubt been one of the most affected by the pandemic Covid-19, which gradually uncovers its specificities in comparison to past crises, according to a note from the French economic Observatory (OFCE) released on Friday.

read also : The government anticipates a downturn of 11% in 2020, " explains Bruno Le Maire

According to this note, which examines the impact of the Covid-19 on the month of April, a time when many countries have confined their population, the global economy has experienced in this month of a recession in 19%, while the share of world trade has dropped 25%.

Germany is more resilient

"Spain, Italy and France are among the countries most affected with a fall in their value added "of more than 30 points", explains the French economic Observatory, an independent body of research. Conversely, the United States (-22 points) or Germany (-24 points) are faring a little less poorly, while the emerging economies are more resilient to this point (-15 points).

read also : Bruno The Mayor, a "new labour culture" must prevail in the economy

But this ranking is "extremely fragile" given the unprecedented character of this crisis, warned Eric Heyer, head of the department of analysis and forecasting to the BOARD at a videoconference press. These differences can be explained both by the magnitude of the containment measures taken, a little lesser in addition to-Rhine and across the Atlantic, but also of the "sectoral structure" of the economies.

Thus, Germany has experienced an internal shock "extremely content" but a loss of external demand to be much more important because of its industrial economy, and open. France is a victim of its exposure to tourism, with sectors of hospitality, trade and commerce much more important than elsewhere.

The job, great unknown

One of the big unknowns of this crisis will be its magnitude on the job, note at this stage, the BOARD, with "three issues", according to Xavier Timbeau, director: the risk of bankruptcy of the companies, the long term problems for certain sectors such as tourism and catering, and a raise too-low household consumption.

so far, however, the crisis results in job losses "relatively limited" because of the public support massive partial unemployment, with the exception of the United States and to a lesser extent Germany, where many of the "minijobs" have been deleted. In contrast, the impact on the demand for labour has been "immediate and powerful", says Eric Heyer.

read also : Bruno Le Maire, le Figaro: "Our goal is the economic sovereignty of France"

This is particularly true in countries with a more flexible labour market and a high content of precarious employment, such as the United States and the United Kingdom. And in those countries where the decline in activity key important sectors to labour-intensive, such as France, Spain and Italy, details of the note.

The editorial team conseilleCrise economic: the Medef wants to save the jeunesChute history of the activity: the Medef, the CFDT and the CFTC, calling for the resumption of the travailRelance: the Medef wants to assign "eco-checks" to households modestesAucun comment

there are currently no comments on this article.
Be the first to give your opinion !

I write a comment