Russia will do everything possible to ensure Belarus

this is The greatest manifestation of democracy and human rights in the Swedish neighborhood, since The emancipation of the 1989-91 to take place in Belarus. Then, in a staged election was held on the 9th of August, in order to validate the present regime of the dictator, Alexander lukashenko's maktinnehav, have the protests have been growing ever since. They have a woman's face. Across the country, demonstrating the hundreds of thousands of people calling for the fair elections and an end to political repression.

Among the protesters are not only students, and politically active citizens, but also of blue-collar workers, workers in the field of transport and the public sector – the people who, for decades, formed the regime's base. This is a release of a belarusisk, national identity, and people's fear of the power it has lost. The chance the election would result in an increase in tension is noted, among other things, in an r & d report for the month of June.

the Events in Belarus and is therefore of great policy significance.

also, the Empirical experience teaches us that authoritarian governments are hard to change. Numerous reports of the systematic abuse of protesters is an indication of the fact that the country's ruling elites are not going to give up on a voluntary basis. On the contrary, Lukashenko, over the past few days had allowed to suggest that he is ready to invite the Russian army to control the situation and ensure the country's ”stability and security” (read: his own position).

It is difficult to see how the Finalists will be able to control with the continuation of the process. He is in great need of assistance from the Russian federation. The events in Belarus and is therefore of great policy significance. It is bordered by several other countries in Sweden's vicinity, with which we have close political and defence cooperation with it. As for Russia, Belarus is of existential importance, and they have an extensive military co-operation.

in Russia, the use of all means at their disposal to ensure Belarus', something that includes political, diplomatic, economic, and military engagement. In a scenario in which the Russian military is set up in Belarus could not be ruled out, even though it does not currently seem likely. Russia has called for an air base in Belarus, something Lukashenko has opposed. Now, he has no choice if Russia is to renew its requests.

at the same time, the belarusian elites are strongly integrated with the Russian system. Official kraftministerier, such as in the fields of defence and ministry of internal affairs, the security service, the KGB, has a lot of links to their Russian counterparts. Several of the belarus government ministers have received their higher education in Russia, such as, for example, the prime minister, the defense minister, the head of the administration of the president and the minister of the interior, to name but a few.

the Normal decency and common sense teach us that the former policy is no longer able to be considered.

Russian scientists have already declared that ”Russia has lost out to Belarus,” and that is what Belarus needs is a ”normal society.” It reminds of back in the day when the Soviet union was dissolved, and the first post-soviet territory was the requirement of a normal life. The events in Belarus show that the factors that led to the collapse of the Soviet union is still very strong.

Minister of foreign affairs, and Ann L (S).Photo by: < / b> to ANDERS WIKLUND/TT / TT NEWS agency

in Sweden and the rest of the EU, there are no simple solutions to this problem or an alternative. However, the normal decency and common sense teach us that the former policy is no longer able to be considered. The foreign aid from the west, which is passed to the belarusian authorities, it should be redirected to help the victims of the repression. In special cases, it may be necessary to evacuate the activists, who are at risk of persecution in Belarus and the EU.

Sweden has, together with a number of neighbouring countries with good experience of the baltic states ' independence from the Soviet union.

Without giving up our own values, the EUROPEAN union should step up its diplomatic relations with Belarus in order to support the re-election for a period of independent observation and transparency of a peaceful resolution of the lukashenko's conflict with its own people. If the EU is serious about the election was illegitimate, his government, nor continued. The imposition of targeted sanctions against those responsible for the fraudulent elections and the crackdown on its own people it can be pressure tactic, but the only solution is the one that is based on dialogue, negotiation and diplomacy. Sweden has, together with a number of neighbouring countries with good experience of the baltic states ' independence from the Soviet union. It is important to make use of these experiences to this day.

the head of Russia's - and the Eurasienprogrammet at the Swedish institute of international affairs and an associate professor at the department of Russian and Eurasienstudier, Uppsala university, sweden.

as the professor, a phd, work for the living as the director of research at the Swedish Defence research agency, FOI.

in the file. mag., work for the living as the director of research at the Swedish Defence research agency, FOI.
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