The Economists from Raiffeisen for 2019 by a total of more volatile markets and a weaker growth of the Swiss economy. How is Raiffeisen chief economist Martin Neff on Tuesday said at a media event, he is expecting to 2019 with a GDP growth of 1.2 percent.
The forecast for 2019 Raiffeisen is moving at the lower edge of all the predictions. The majority of experts estimated that currently the economic growth to be 1.2 to 1.7 percent. The Raiffeisen-experts justified the 2018 shrunken growth with "a journey to lose in the international economy". In addition, the trade conflict between the United States and China and the renewed discussions about the stability of the Eurozone is bleak and the Outlook for the export-dependent Swiss economy, said Neff.
the chief economist, it comes to an unusual situation. While issues such as Brexit or the increasing indebtedness of employees for some time the markets had increased the uncertainty with the trade disputes between the United States and China, the political unrest in France, or even the interest rate policy of leading Central banks.
in addition to these external factors, it is considered Neff, but also as alarming that the Swiss economy is still strong from the pharmaceutical industry. "One of the issues remains the relative dependence of the Swiss economy of a few industries such as pharmaceuticals and the watch industry." The pharmaceutical industry is achieved, as measured by the GDP, a trade surplus of 7 to 8 percent. Similar conditions existed in no other country.
What relates to the expected economic growth for 2019 and the significant decrease compared with 2018, Neff, at the same time, that 2018 was a very good year, and should not be regarded as the normal case. This is not least to special factors, such as the football world Cup, which have provided special effects for GDP.
loads of currency page
As the load factor for 2019 has identified Neff in addition to the uncertainty factors, but also the exchange rates. Raiffeisen assumes that the Swiss franc will appreciate in the next few months. Specifically, he sees the Euro exchange rate on twelve-month point of view, 1.09 Swiss francs and the US Dollar at 0.96 and the Swiss franc. The will not go completely to the exports, according to the forecast.
As the Economist, the event also clearly, the negative rates by the SNB in his eyes yet little. "The difference in interest rates explains the strength of the Swiss franc becoming less and less", is his conclusion. Since the ECB is the last to occur again, rather hesitantly, as soon as the topic of interest rate hikes is to come, and Neff, on the assumption that the SNB will maintain its course. "She has simply no real game room." (anf/sda)
Created: 08.01.2019, 12:12 PM