Not quite made unfit place – thus, analysts predict the SM-league finals series: don't let home-field advantage fool you!

Master your favorite Weasels will host the surpriser-HPK:ta in the final match of the series opening. How to get out of oulu, the championship may be in advance to keep? The evening paper's betting expert Pete Käenmäki and data analysts to tell you.HPK:n a place in the final wasn't a data analyst for a huge surprise. New brunswick is still kept at around 70% as a favorite champion. Tomi Jokela/AOP

When you need information about the goals of probabilities modelling in hockey, you should turn to the My Pellisen direction. Data-analyst got on the subject of its master's theses of the amendment in February and open in the next finals series data side.

Mystical home-field advantage

This spring's playoffs, the home win percentage has been exceptionally hard, as the hosts have been the match of the final winners in a bewildering number of, as many as 75% of the time.

guests for the team so I shouldn't send the bet to?

– first of all need to understand that the comparison made by the big and the small sample size. There are Kahneman and Tversky launched by the small figures, the law according to which people tend to make generalizations from a small information amount. In this case, the playoffs is so small, that the variance to explain the unusually large home win amount. I think there is no justification for claims this spring's readings as anything other than a coincidence, Pellinen analysis cool.

At home represent talk quite a lot. Trough, the ”home judge”, the home crowd and also the visiting team the motivation level rise were discussed.

the General perception is that home-field advantage importance is the playoffs lower than in the regular season.

– playoffs does not arise motivaatioetu, because all the matches are important. Motivation things I think are kind of, who may wish to turn to either team's advantage. I like it mostly as noise, as this is also a season-high home win percentage. Betting in such a short period of extraordinary trend reacting to is not profitable, also in the bookmakers, as a professional functional Kind, remind.

Club kuti fragile

To the end of the match up to be able to make progress, is the game in certain areas have been very successful. What kind of details data analyst eyes is the Weasels, as well as HPK's perform attached?

– Both teams has been excellent the paint to the expected values based on ratios in the particular defense game. The weasels outnumbered game has been really high quality. HPK instead, let clearly the least number of goals expected by five against five in the regular season.

Pellisen analysis on the basis of the Weasels, however, has been slightly better maalidottaman (xG) in the creation of a fully kentällisin. HPK instead of shooting a little more.

– the Differences are very small, but loosely interpreted I can say that the Weasels might focus a little more on construction, decoration, whereas HPK could shoot heikommas jacket place.

finishing power in terms of the Weasels was in the regular season clearly hämeenlinna above. The team exceeded the expected value (2,30 realized, the expected value of 1.90 goals), where HPK is below it (1,55 – 1,83).

– finishing abilities are quite sensitive issues for interpretation, because the trigger rates vary so much during the season. However, it is quite reasonable to assume that the Weasels such as high quality material teams are able to over achieve the country finishing. In the playoffs both teams finishing, however, has been the expectation values lower.”

Kärpät dominated by alivoimanVeini Vehviläinen is above the goalkeeper in a duel. Tomi Jokela/AOP

evenly matched teams face in over and alivoimien importance. Pellisen according to the special situation of statistics in favour of the interpretation is always relative to a play to the special situation at the time.

– HPK-superiority trigger intensity was the regular season high, while the Weasels shot a lot less. HPK generated numbers also paint the expected value at a better rate. The weasels finishing has been better.

Each team has managed to overrun the well, but the Weasels have been in that area yet clearly quality. Statistician open:

– a Special very Weasels to limit the opponent's superiority in the shots amount. A series of average outnumbered team take about a hundred shots 60 lost minutes per. Weasels have managed to keep opponents to launch pace of about 77 shot per 60 av minutes.

Vehviläinen summary

a special situation play in addition to the goalkeeper rose in the spring under a magnifying glass. But why did the data analysis focuses on the probability, and not a purely combat%?

Paint the probabilities are very suitable for the goalkeeper performance assessment, as they help combat the percentage can be calculated for the expected value, with the goal of quality is taken into account.

– the Traditional save percentage does not take any position on how the quality of the paint place of saves is done. Maskiton vippaus line is worth as much as a third consecutive rebound against meters from the finish line.

the final series of the goalkeeper in the game in terms Pellinen is detected from the data, that the Weasels Veini Vehviläinen is to combat a clear goal probability based on the expected value and is the season best goalkeeper.

contributions instead are closer to the series average.

– the seminar will consists of presentations is rejected, the expected value is better, but not as much as the previous season. I think he has the potential to improve the read they, for the past period on the basis of the seminar will consists of presentations is a better than average goalkeeper.

Most favorite

the Orange spring has been one of the spring phenomena, but were you surprised by the ball club's progression to the final data analysts?

– Although many parties have TPS and tappara of the dropping of a big surprise, HPK eu level has been the model according to my quite high for a couple of months. I so far like HPK's place in the finals to a very big surprise.

instead, the Weasels a place in the final was considered to be virtually certain before the season starts, but in oulu, too, has its own probe to the stone.

Weasels is naturally the master's favorite, but the team was already in a little trouble in the quarter finals in a series. In particular, the attack game of the readings are updated downward. In general, the final series is the current power relations much smoother than what it would have been a month ago.”

and what was the statistical guru of the vision team, the power of relationships – both to lift the jug?

– a Preliminary assessment of the finale to the series is 72-28 Weasels. NHL Columbus started almost the same probabilities in Tampa and look what happened: the Blue Jackets win the series 4-0. So it's not like trying to place HPK:no, but the figures are strongly Weasels in the direction tilted, Kind nail.