Mega-profit of the national Bank expected

If the SNB on 25. April, your result will indicate for the period of January to March, 2019, are likely to be the Numbers shiny. The Economists of the big Bank, the UBS estimate for a profit of around 30 billion Swiss francs, with three-quarters on an increase in value when shares and bonds are omitted.

After the very weak fourth quarter of 2018, the equity markets have shown in the first quarter, as we know, a never-expected recovery. The Swiss stock index SMI, for example, an increase of 12 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial reached a such of 11 percent. The global equity index MSCI World rose in the first quarter by almost 12 percent, also in this order of magnitude.

u-turn by the US Central Bank responsible for profit

Other indexes such as the technology-heavy US Index Nasdaq grew even more brilliant and gave the equity markets overall, the strongest increase since several years. And also, since interest rates declined due to the slowdown on the economic front and more defensive Central banks, also increased the rates for bonds.

Responsible for the strong result of the SNB's u-turn by the US Central Bank, the Fed and the European Central Bank, the UBS, in their analysis was the primary.

All components in the Plus

In Detail, the Economists of the big banks appreciate the contribution of the stock market recovery to around half of the expected 30 billion profit. On the stock market portfolio by a total of slightly more than 140 billion Swiss francs, you should have made a profit of 15 billion Swiss francs. The higher bond rates of approximately 6 billion is expected to be come, and also the Gold of the SNB is likely to have contributed a valuation gain of just under a billion Swiss francs.

From the other Post (negative interest rates, interest payments, dividend payments) in addition, according to the estimate of a profit of around 3.5 billion Swiss francs. In terms of currency, the Swiss franc has gained slightly against the Euro, this had been due to a rise in the US dollar and other currencies against the Swiss franc more than offset. This is likely to have led, ultimately, have a contribution to profit of almost 2 billion.

double edged sword

With the high income would be the equity of the SNB of around 120 billion at the end of 2018 to the current 150 billion Swiss francs. The very pleasing result for the quarter was for the SNB, however, is a two-edged sword, as the specialists of the UBS. On the one hand, the structure of the reserves of strength, the credibility of the SNB's monetary policy in the face of a balance sheet total of over 800 billion Swiss francs, on the other hand, such a high Surplus on the political side, to Wake, of course, greed.

Since the result of the SNB is also influenced as is shown especially by the developments on the financial markets, may change the picture up to the end of the year. In the first quarter, the SNB has benefited Portfolio of a very strong financial market environment, writes UBS. The strong profit growth will not continue in the rest of the year. A further easing of monetary policy was only to be expected in a significant growth weakness, of which the bonds would not benefit from the shares.

too early for speculation

the development can also go in the other direction, for example, the last year shown. So, the SNB has retracted in the total year 2018, a loss of 14.9 billion Swiss francs.

It is not, accordingly, too much sense to speculate about the profit distribution to the Confederation and the cantons. But it should arise in full-year profit in the current size, would the Confederation and the cantons in accordance with the profit distribution agreement, as in the last few years, will receive 2 billion Swiss francs.

(sda)

Created: 24.04.2019, 08:55 PM