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Johan Schück: the Economy can develop decent, despite the large uncertainty in the face of 2019

the Economy is getting weaker in 2019. The case in Sweden, as well as in the world economy.

But if there is a gradual slowdown or a deeper recession is not as clear. Basic tips is that it will be a gradual deceleration, and not any tvärnit.

In that case, Sweden can expect a gdp increase of one to two per cent during the next year, according to forecasts. Unemployment rises slightly, but stays around 6.5 per cent.

helping to stabilise the economy. Exports are more uncertain, because of a downturn in the world economy will be directly felt Swedish business and investment.

The really big question mark comes to the housing market. It is expecting a slowdown in the construction is clear, but not how deep it needs to be.

house prices have a big impact. A sharp drop would hit the whole economy, especially if many households choose to tighten their consumption. So far, however, suggests more of the shaky house prices than for a steep fall in prices.

also the housing market. But the interest rate hike just before christmas, from -0,50 percent to sek-0.25%, means that much more not to wait for 2019. An increase of the repo rate is announced for the second half of the year, but it can be zero if the inflation will slow down.

President Andreas Norlén in the parliament. Photo: Magnus Hallgren

In regeringsfrågan, there is great uncertainty, at least to statsministeromröstningen on 16 January. If no new prime minister, when elected, will be the next chance on 23 January. Otherwise the only remaining option which shall be held no later than 21 april.

the Result can then be that the current transitional government may present the spring fiscal policy bill (vårbudgeten), which should be available on the parliamentary table by 15 april.

regardless of when it takes office, it is projected budgets for the remainder of 2019. Vårbudgeten provides such an opportunity, unless a new government has been able to take. Otherwise, it can be in the budget bill in september.

however, there is a restriction: the reduction of inkomstinkomsten that the parliament has already adopted can not be changed later in the year. The government can, however, propose increased spending, but within quite narrow margins.

Quite a small changes are therefore expected in the economic policies in 2019, even with a new government in place.

the British prime minister, Theresa May in Brussels, 25 november 2018. Photo: Emmanuel Dunnand/AFP

instead, the in the world. The clearest case of the Uk's withdrawal from the EU, where the date is set to march 29, but still can be changed. No one knows yet if the Brexit will mean an orderly retreat, or whether chaos will break out. During the next few months should all of it be determined.

Also for Sweden see Brexit out to become this year's big economic issue, with repercussions as yet largely unforeseeable.

the EU issues to become big in 2019. In October, the term of office for the sitting of the EU commission Jean-Claude Juncker is the president. It is the EUROPEAN elections at the end of may, in which the outcome affects who should be his successor.

Mario Draghi, the steps of the 31st of October. Personfrågan will be of great importance for the ECB's monetary policy stance. It becomes a tug of war between the north and the south, where the Finnish central bank governor Erkki Liikanen is one of the candidates.

Sweden's relationship to the euro, which on 1 January will be 20 years old, does not change in 2019. But the question of Swedish participation in the EU's banking union is still important and partly independent from the issue of the euro . An investigation of the reasons for and against a Swedish membership in the banking union should be completed by the end of november.

Yet, U.S. trade policy, mainly towards China, was not mentioned among the risks before 2019. However, the conflicts are unresolved and the threat of a resurgence of trade war continue to exist despite the temporary lull after the recent G20 meeting in Buenos Aires.

the global konfliktfrågorna be discussed, is held in June during Japan's leadership. But not there is any lasting solution to be reckoned with. More likely is, on the contrary, the emergence of new tensions, especially between the united states and the rest of the world.

the Threat of financial crises is also available, mainly from emerging countries in different continents: Argentina, Turkey and others. But yet it does not seem likely that any of them would give rise to a global crisis.

on the Contrary there are conditions that the economy in both the world and Sweden will be developed decently in 2019. The future is certainly very uncertain, but the positive is often done in the quiet – without being linked to any major event.

and poverty is on the decline. The health status improves and life expectancy rises. The development will quite certainly continue in the next year.

Read more: Here are the trapdoors before the stock market 2019

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