before the 2018 put their collective savings in the stock market and Swedish companies have had scarcely any good börsjul. In the years, the OMXS-index had lost about eight per cent, with a few hours of trading left. It means that 2018 is to be the first stock market since 2011 with a negative return. In 2011 backed the OMXS-index more than 18 per cent.
has been coloured by negative headlines about trade friction and economic conditions and interest rates, in particular in the united states, has been ticking upwards.
" Looking at the balance between good news and bad news as it tends to be fairly equal in the scales but it has been very clear, mainly during the second half of the year, the negative balance had run over. The list is well two–three times as long and in my world it's filled just, "says Martin Guri, aktiestrateg at Kepler Chevreux, and continues:
" all of a sudden, it has also begun to be investment options, not so clearly in Europe and Sweden as in the US, where interest rates have gone up. Without problems, you can get five per cent return on a bond with two years maturity if you take a little risk, and it is very palatable.
now seen their investments decrease in 2018 is, of course, the big question is how to act before 2019? Both Martin Guri, Maria Landeborn, sparekonom at Danske Bank, are on the beginning of the year can be massively bumpy.
– You need to consider when you need the money and how risk-averse it actually is. It is all about retirement savings and there is a långtsiktigt savings then need savers not thinking about it so much. It is, however, money to use in the near future and that should be used for a bostadsinvestering, then, I don't like to enter the stock market right now, " says Maria Landeborn.
Both of the lifts the two heavy factors to why the forecast is for a weak start to the year:
" I think it's going to start very poorly, we have two key factors, both brexit-the question which we must pass, and hopefully before the end of march, know how it will go, both trade wars as we also have information around within a couple of months. Until then it looks very messy, "says Martin Guri, and continues:
" I think that all the world's stock exchanges will start to dim, however, not to say that the stock market ends weak just on the basis that a year is a very long way. This year it began on a high note and ended in a minor key, next year may be the opposite.
for a rebound during the year in China, where the country's stimulus package in the fall, which is supposed to lift growth and reduce the impact of the trade wars, to the end can give the effect.
– It can be a key to it eventually stabilized again when it strikes through and will start to appear somewhere during the second or third quarter, " she says.
– To handelskonflikten between the U.S. and China escalates and that the tariffs will go up to 25 per cent as previously threatened. The margins of the companies will then go down, and the profit drops very quickly. Vinstprognosen shows now at ten percent but can quickly go down to only a couple per cent and then there's no reason to be on the stock exchange. The other factor is that it will be a hard brexit, which will create an inertia not only in the Uk but in Europe, which can temporarily mess it up quite dramatically, " says Martin Guri.