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Gunnar Jonsson: A handelsfred do not end on systemkonflikten the united states–China

trade wars between the united states and China is in full swing again. Last week raised the president, Donald Trump duties to 25% on goods worth 200 billion dollars. On Monday, was prepared for the same level for basically the rest of the imports from China, more than 300 billion annually. Retaliation is to be expected.

on the economic context. He loves duties, " he says, and sees them as the key to his fix idea that bilateral trade depends on the ”injustice”. And he claims, contrary to all reason that China pay tariffs, and that the money flows straight into the u.s. treasury. In reality, the ports, the cost of either companies in the united states or, more likely, of the consumers.

The real stumbling block is that president Xi Jinping does not intend to abandon its state-capitalist economic model

But the conflict is fundamentally much more than a Trumpfråga. It is normally lifelong u.s. business community is deeply concerned about China's methods to mute or distort markets. The democrats are at least as eager to push Beijing as president. The EU and other global players also see the chinese as cheaters.

any kind of agreement up to the G20 meeting in June. Maybe not. The fundamental systemkonflikten will in any case not to disappear, rather to be tightened for a long time to come.

China was ready to buy more american, from soybeans to oil. It would be a solution in Trumps spirit. He would appear to be the great negotiator, the US trade deficit would shrivel and the president is not the one who says no to that kind of marknadsförvrängningar.

reasons. Single-minded hawks in Trumps proximity, as the chief negotiator Robert Lighthizer, has insisted on the more fundamental concessions. China needs to stop dipping gigantic government subsidies of export industries, stop discriminating against us companies in their home market and stop stealing the patent rights (for example, with his army of computer hackers).

And Trump seem to have understood that political dangers lurk. To declare mission accomplished and go to options 2020 on a mediocre deal does not work. Democratic opponents would brand him as a wimp.

Formal negotiations failed because China refused to enter their evasive promises in the law. The actual stumbling block is that president Xi Jinping does not intend to abandon its state-capitalist economic model, as little as he will scrap the kommunistdiktaturens political repression. Structural reforms would erode the regime's control.

discontent, as the state's massive bets on high technology and artificial intelligence, is in xi's world essential in order to spread China's influence over Asia and further afield. New Silk road, a megaproject for infrastructure investments, performing the same function. In the extension there is a military dimension that is already visible in the south China sea.

trade war is not at all easy to win, as Trump claims. The duties will be a form of tax on consumption and investment, which tends to depress growth in the united states. China is also a part of the world economy in a way that the Soviet union never was. The greater the friction, the worse the damage.

Trump both domestically and globally supported. So amazingly stupid is why his crusade against his natural ally, that is to say, the EU and other democratic countries with the same interests in open markets. For even friends singled out by dishonest nasare who deserve to be punished with tariffs.

more sensible would be to use the tools available, such as the wto the WTO. Where can americans and europeans jointly push forward rules that China may be allowed to accept. Rather than sabotaging Trump the work of the WTO. Other useful instruments, like The fta, the TPP, were left to their fate.

svartmålas unnecessarily. But the dream of the Communist party would be interested in democracy and economic freedom is a chimera. A compromise between the two systems in China and the united states is therefore not up to date. With or without Trump.

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