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Experts: Risk of turbulent börsvår after strong rise

"Partly on the decline in december and the turbulent end when a lot of money flowed out from the stock markets, , then have the risk appetite has come back an

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Experts: Risk of turbulent börsvår after strong rise

"Partly on the decline in december and the turbulent end when a lot of money flowed out from the stock markets, , then have the risk appetite has come back and a lot of money has flowed in again," says Johanna Litter, sparekonom on the Avanza.

She believes that the rise mainly due to macroeconomic factors and that the risk of a trade war between the united states and China declined, as well as u.s. interest rate hikes. This is seen as a positive from the market's direction.

According to Joakim Bornold, sparekonom at Söderberg & Partners, is the rise of a return to the normal position for the stock market.

– Despite the fact that there are dark clouds in the sky so delivered to the companies a good quarter at the latest. It has boosted the stock market after the big decline, " he says.

our on the stock exchange in front of him where Brexit and the risk of a trade war complicates the situation.

– at the same time I think that it may have a positive effect on the stock market – everyone has something to gain from it. Dramatic decisions need to be taken, and we find ourselves in a position where it must act even though the parties are very far from each other.

Johanna Litter, sparekonom on the Avanza. Photo: Avanza.

Though Martin Guri, chief strategist at by Kepler Chevreux, says that the market expects handelskonflikten between the united states and China to resolve itself.

– Similarly, we believe that Brexit won't be as bad as it first was feared. The underlying picture is that the global economy is on the way down, it reached its peak in 2017 in Europe and 2018 in the united states. We are faced with a weaker economic growth, and regardless of the Brexit, or a trade war.

in may, is another factor that can affect the market.

" the Market dislikes uncertainty. If ytterlighetspartier pushing for secession would get increased mandate, it would not be received well on the stock market. If the EU-friendly centred alliance going forward should the status quo remain intact, which is the market in this case would see as something good.

How then should that individual savers to think and act in the spring – after several years of gains in the stock market?

Joakim Bornold believes that one should not be worried about steep declines.

Joakim Bornold, sparekonom at Söderberg & Partners. Photo: Thomas Karlsson

– the Stock market has no memory, the gains do not die of old age. But a more turbulent time waiting. Both as a professional and private savers should see that the lending works; that it is capable of that the market goes down 20-30%. It works best for the night and give the best return, " he says and continues:

– Many have probably missed the rise in January on the grounds that they sold in december. It is difficult to time, but you need to find a level of risk on their savings, where you feel comfortable with the turns that will.

the monthly savings, it is wise to continue with it in the spring, says Martin Guri.

– If you are careful and not particularly active, you should look for shares with great visibility, where the risk is low and the yield high. Telecom operators are good examples where. If you are active and look at the shares on a daily basis to pick up the positive turn is now. When is real estate good for, " he says.

Johanna Kull thinks that private investors should focus on what you can control. She advise you to not attach at a single company or industry, and you should save in broad funds.

– should be Deleted from your sparhorisont. When will you use the money? If there is long-term, around five to ten years, so you can continue to save in their mutual funds. If the time horizon is shorter than two years do not hear the money at home on the stock market.

– The single largest börshotet for me would be if the companies start vinstvarna or come in with weak reports in april. You notice that the profits turn sharply will the stock market fall, and that is what we watch the most, " says Joakim Bornold.

Johanna Litter highlights the importance of uncertainty in the world and points to the latest kvartalsrapporternas predictions were a little more uncertain.

– Handelskonflikten is the main issue and there are high hopes for a solution now, but if it were to fall flat, we learn to see sharp börsreaktioner, " she says, and adds:

– another risk is if we get very strong statistics on the labour market, with the strong inflation numbers, especially from the united states, which may increase the risk for rate increases. The u.s. central bank signals have recently been right duvaktiga, but can be changed to the more hawkish – which can lead to rising interest rates and a stronger dollar.

Martin Guri stresses the political utspels impact on the stock market and believe that the additional pressure – not handelsinriktat, without military – on China can create anxiety.

– It is policy in the broad sense of the term that can create concern; it affects people's actions, and if people get worried, perhaps you don't shop and buy as much, and the fear to invest is increasing.

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