Erik de la Reguera: Brexit risks becoming a chicken race

The English words ”chicken race” refers to a deadly game where two cars drive straight toward each other at high speed. The dodges first loses.

In political theory used it as a parable for a negotiation process where two parties with incompatible positions, refusing to give way to motsidans requirements – despite the fact that the risk then increases for a catastrophic source of livelihood for them both.

the Expression is sometimes used a little carelessly. But when it comes to the negotiations on the Uk's EU-exit, it may now soon be in its place.

march 29 should the Uk leave the EU. If you have not secured a utträdesavtal then will trade in a blow to be governed by WTO rules, with high customs duties and bureaucratic obstacles, delays, shortages, and tens of thousands of lost jobs (it is, in any case, what most economists think). Negative impact expected on both sides of the English channel, but in particular for the british.

Despite this, voted by the british parliament on Tuesday to renegotiate the skilsmässoavtalet with the EU. More specifically: you want it to be developed ”alternative solutions” to the vexed our backup plan is going (”backstop”) for northern Ireland.

"The decision taken here is to show that it is possible to gather a majority for an agreement, and what is required then," said Theresa May in parliament on Wednesday.

what the ”alternative solutions” should be, spake the prime minister just resolved if the ”technological solutions” – which could mean vägkameror, gps and nummerplåtsavläsning and digital customs declarations.

The type of solutions may very well be current. However, the limit on the irish island is extremely political sensitive and all physical infrastructure must therefore be kept to a minimum. The task becomes not easier of the that the british continue to insist that neither belong to the EU's customs union, or choose some form of ”Norgelösning”.

for this reason, the EU has insisted on having an emergency solution in the agreement. In practice, it would keep the Uk in the customs union, while northern Ireland is covered by certain EU regulations.

supposed to enter in force if the parties have not found a satisfactory solution for the border in Ireland after at least 21 months long transitional period. But for the ”brexitörerna” in London it is a ”trap”.

the Irish government refuses, on their side, back on our backup plan is going, because the fear that the peace agreement in northern Ireland may be in danger. But the risk is also present if no agreement is reached.

– Utträdelseavtalet will not be renegotiated, said EUROPEAN commission president Jean-Claude Juncker on Wednesday.

Can an ”alternative solution” is reached, and a crash be avoided? If the 58 days we know.

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